Orlando Magic vs. Sacramento Kings NBA Betting Picks: 1/3 Prediction, Odds & Player Props

We have a great matchup this evening between two teams vying for homecourt advantage in the NBA Playoffs as the Kings host the Orlando Magic.

Over the last two weeks of play, the Magic are 3-5 with a -2.8 point differential. Sacramento is 3-4 with a -2.4 point differential over that same span. Each team is better than they've shown of late, dealing with a bit of a mid-season miring for differing reasons.

Orlando has struggled mightily shooting the ball from deep, hitting just 32.9% from 3 since Christmas Day, 25th in the NBA over that span per Cleaning the Glass. Sacramento has shot well from beyond the arc, but been greatly off at the rim, shooting below their season (and league) average at the rim and way off on many mid range looks as well.

This game is a big opportunity for either team to reach 20 wins before the other and find some footing in the new year.

The Kings are at home and the favorite (-200), but the Magic are close underdogs on the road (+165). This game is close to a toss up.

Check out my game prediction and favorite prop bet picks below. Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

• Game Date: Wednesday, January 3rd, 2024
• Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
• Spread: Kings -4.5
• Moneyline: Kings -200; Magic +165
• Scoring Total: 231.5 points
• Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
• TV Channel: NBC Sports California, Ball Sports Florida

Our Magic vs. Kings Betting Picks & Prediction

Orlando to Cover the Spread

• Orlando has the third highest offensive Free Throw to Field Goal rate in the NBA: Sacramento is 22nd in the defensive category (They foul often and Orlando draws fouls at a high level).
• Orlando is top 10 in both offensive and defensive rebound rate.
• Orlando is 3rd in Defensive Turnover Percentage.

Total Points Under 231.5

• Sacramento and Orlando have both hung below or at league average in Offensive Rating the past two weeks.
• Both teams play above league average in pace, but their inefficiencies they both face offensively feel like they could cancel one another out on the margins.
• Both teams are on a back to back, which could lend itself to a lower pace.

Best Magic vs. Kings Moneyline Odds

Our Player Props Picks for Magic vs. Kings

Keegan Murray Over 1.5 Steals

• Keegan Murray averages 1.3 steals per game.
• The Magic are 24th in offensive turnover percentage (they turn over the ball at an above average rate).
• Both teams play at an above average pace of play.

Franz Wagner Over .5 Blocks

• The Kings play quite a bit smaller than the Magic, and Wagner will likely play on smaller guards throughout the game on defense.
• Especially given how the Magic play with help defense in the post, it feels highly possible that Wagner slides over and makes more plays at the rim this game than usual.
• 42.1% of Sacramento's shots come from the three, and Wagner is a strong closeout defender who has more than a fair chance to tip or block a shot outright from a guard.

Paolo Banchero to have Double Double

• Banchero has had two double doubles in the past three games. 
• Given Sacramento's struggles with fouling and how good Orlando is on the offensive glass, boards and points feel a bit easier to come by.
• Paolo is averaging 24.4 points and 7.9 rebounds over his last 10 games.