Nuggets @ Trail Blazers Predictions: Bet the under on the Points Totals

In the first game of two playoff games tonight, the Denver Nuggets head back to Portland for Game 6 against the Trail Blazers after taking some of Portland’s best shots in a double-overtime win.

Damian Lillard did everything he could to keep the game going, including two improbable 3-pointers at the end of regulation and the end of the first overtime. However, I think it’s important to note that if not for missed free throws from Denver, he doesn’t get that opportunity.

I’ve said all series; “Dame Time” terrifies the you know what out of me. He has all the confidence in the world and can honestly make any shot that Stephen Curry can.

One thing I don’t think that’s been talked about enough is just how much Portland’s starters were on the floor in the last game. In a double-overtime, 58-minute game, Lillard played 51 minutes while two other starters played 50. No Denver player played more than 47. Having to play just two games later, I’m curious to see the pace of the Blazers and if there’s any fatigue in any members of the starting five.

Despite the win for Denver, Portland opened as 4-point favorites and have since moved up to 5-point favorites.

The production of Lillard is obviously going to be a big factor, just as it always has for Portland in the playoffs. He’s been rather up and down. He scored 55 in the last game and went 12-of-17 from three after scoring just 10 the game before.

However, the most important player in this game is Jusuf Nurkic. Nurkic has done an astounding job giving Nikola Jokic fits, but he’s shown a tendency to foul out. If Portland wants to extend this series, he needs to be able to stay on the floor.

Since I’m already exposed in this series on Denver to win the series, I’m not taking either side in this game.

Instead, I’m going to take the under 226. I think the public is overreacting to last game’s 287 combined points, and I think this game is going to be a bit slower-paced, as the minutes played for Portland’s starters last game catches up with them.

For our prop of the game, I like Aaron Gordon under points. Gordon has disappeared multiple times this series and I think that could happen again in Portland tonight. The number is 11.5 at BetMGM at +100, 12.5 at 130 at PointsBet, -121 at 888Sport BetRivers and Unibet.