New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics Predictions, Picks, and Odds 9/19/23
The Washington Mystics opened up Game One against the Liberty with a 29 point quarter, outscoring New York by six and looking like they had a real shot to steal the game. New York outscored Washington 67- 46 the rest of the way, holding the Mystics below 20 points in the final three quarters.
Riding the back of a remarkable offensive showing from Sabrina Ionescu, 29 points and 7 made threes, including 20 points in the second half, the Liberty stamped themselves as a different team than the one that was blitzed by the Mystics on opening day of the WNBA season. How might Game Two look?
The Liberty are 10.5 point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, with -575 odds on the moneyline. The Mystics have +425 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 163.
New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics Game Two Predictions
Prediction
The Liberty found success defensively by hedging and putting extra pressure on the ball to keep DC guards Natasha Cloud and Brittney Sykes out of the middle of the floor and away from the paint. That resulted in a season high from center Myisha Hines-Allen, as she took advantage of what the defense was willing to give up.
She slipped screens, popped, took her own keepers to the basket, and had an all around terrific offensive game.
However, from there the Mystics’ floor-spacing woes reared their heads. A team that has struggled to hit open shots all year, the Liberty were comfortable hard helping and playing gap defense, expertly playing off of DC’s personnel. Washington finished the night 5/22 from deep, and it felt worse when watching live as crucial shots that would’ve cut the lead and kept Washington in striking distance fell short or hit the rim.
The bigger question: Can the Mystics get Elena Delle Donne going for a whole game?
Delle Donne had 6 points in the opening quarter as the Mystics looked to her in the post, facing up, and playing out of how she could impact the floor. New York moved Jonquel Jones onto Delle Donne the next quarter, used Breanna Stewart as a stalwart help defender, and then struggled to generate easy looks the rest of the night.
I’d look to see the Mystics try to counter with ball screens for Delle Donne, either as the ball-handler or screener; anything to make New York have to think about how they’re guarding her.
The Mystics also need to clean up their own defense, as they were haphazard in early offense and struggled with lapses of miscommunication, something this team can’t afford and a large reason for Sabrina Ionescu’s scoring outburst.
It feels as though the liberty already have so many problems solved and problems to present for the Mystics before Game Two has even tipped just by what was done in Game One. While nothing is impossible, it feels like we’re headed towards a sweep in NYC.
Score Prediction: Liberty 95 Mystics 78
Players to Watch
Jonquel Jones finished with 20 points and 12 boards in Game One, and her play was demonstrative for the Liberty. When she’s at her best, she unlocks a level for this New York team that most teams just don’t have the ability to contend with. As good as Hines-Allen was offensively, she was overmatched by Jones in most facets on the defensive end.
She was the key for New York’s defensive tightening, she moved the ball fluidly on offense, was dependable in the post, attacked off the bounce, and was a difference maker on the glass. Jones has been the bellwether for this team, and when she’s playing like this, it’s hard to not just stop and admire the Liberty and what they’re putting out on the floor.
How to Watch
The New York Liberty will host the Washington Mystics at Barclays Arena on Tuesday September, 19th at 7:00pm EST. You can watch the game on ESPN.
