New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Predictions, Picks, and Odds 10/11/23

The Las Vegas Aces drubbed the New York Liberty in game one of the WNBA Finals, 99-82, spurred on by their trio of All-Star guards who combined for 72 points. New York struggled to create easy looks in the second half as Las Vegas' defense tightened, something Head Coach Sandy Brondello credited to her team's struggles in the game.

The Liberty's starting backcourt combined for 17 points and struggled defensively to contain the Aces, something they'll look to shore up for the remainder of the series.

The Aces are 5 point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, with -218 odds on the moneyline. The Liberty have +180 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 171.5.

Prediction

While I would bank on the Liberty making strides and improving on both ends of the ball here, I would look for the Aces to clean up their home court in game two.

Jackie Young dominated the game through her blend of strength, quickness, and shot-making. None of New York's guards could stay in front of her. Secondary schemes weren't well executed or effective. She's too good a shooter to leave open. 

She set the tone for the series with her play in game one, the biggest problem for the Liberty to solve defensively. 

Can they slow the pace? Keep the ball out of her hands or pressure her more up the court? 

The Liberty have options, but they need to find answers.

Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum, the Aces' other star guards, were fantastic in tandem with Young, cutting off of her, getting her open as she cut herself, and overall playing with flow and motion. The Aces' offense hit a level of movement in the second half that the Liberty couldn't keep up with, often looking a second behind in the rhythm of the game.

A'ja Wilson only took 11 shots, but dominated defensively, holding down the paint and using her mobility to stifle actions.

Point blank, the Liberty need better guard play if they're going to win game two, and have a chance in the series.

Much like in the past series with the Sun, the Liberty struggled to get Courtney Vandersloot going downhill early, as the Aces went under the majority of her ball screens, keeping her out of the paint. That forced New York into more difficult and contested shots without being able to fully engage Vegas' defense. Can they get Vandersloot going downhill off of different actions? That will be key to watch.

Score Prediction: Aces 95 Liberty 86

Players to Watch

Kayla Thornton and Marine Johannes are the answers here.

Johannes was stellar in the first half, exploding for 14 points off the bench (including an absurd one-legged beauty), propelling New York to their halftime lead.

The Aces had to adapt and adjust to Johannes' movement, opening up some playmaking opportunities for her that she made the most of. However, she went scoreless in the second half as New York's offense stalled out in the halfcourt and they denied her off the ball.

Thornton, on the other hand, only played three minutes in the game, but given some of the issues the Liberty have had defensively, it feels like a series that Thornton could/should see an increased workload. She can make open shots from deep. She can keep players in front of her while being solid as an off-ball defender and holding her own on the glass. I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberty try to control the pace and play with more size instead of trying to matchup outright with the Aces' guards.

How to Watch

The Las Vegas Aces will host the New York Liberty at Michelob Ultra Arena on Wednesday October, 11th at 9:00pm EST. You can watch the game on ESPN.