New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Predictions, Picks, and Odds 10/08/23

The WNBA Finals are here, set to tip off this coming Sunday in Sin City. Since free agency opened, this matchup has been heralded and headlined, and after the longest regular season in league history, the expected Finals matchup is here.

The Aces didn’t lose a game en route to the championship series, sweeping the Chicago Sky and Dallas Wings as the top seed in the postseason. The Liberty swept the Mystics in a close series before dropping game one to the Sun, and then winning three straight, closing out the series in Connecticut as they punched their ticket to the Finals.

The Aces are 5 point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, with -205 odds on the moneyline. The Liberty have +170 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 172.5.

Prediction

The Aces have hit their stride, playing their best basketball in the postseason as they’ve locked in fully on defense and won most of their games convincingly. The number one ranked defense in the league that wavered a bit post-All-Star break looked back in form in both of the past rounds, the backbone of the reigning champs.

New York struggled at times in both matchups to get into their offense, their bread and butter, as the Mystics and Sun found ways to keep lead guard Courtney Vandersloot from getting into the paint. However, the Liberty showcased the growth of their season, working through and problem-solving with different lineups and coverages throughout to adjust, adapt, and win.

The season series was split 2-2 during the regular season, but in favor of the Liberty counting the Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game.

It’s been an oddity of a matchup this season, with only one game of the five played between the top two teams in the league decided by less than 10 points, their final matchup on August 28th,a 94-85 Liberty win in Brooklyn.

Las Vegas was 19-1 at home during the regular season; their only loss coming at the hands of the Los Angeles Sparks (Commissioner’s Cup not included). 

With home court advantage and extra days rest, the Aces seem primed to take game one.

Score Prediction: Aces 90 Liberty 83

Players to Watch

In a star-studded affair, the x-factors are abundant in this series, but the players who round out lineups as the 4th or 5th option can change the game in ways that aren’t always easy to see.

Kiah Stokes is vital for the Aces, starting in the wake of Candace Parker’s injury. Stokes is not a shooter, or a high volume scorer, but she’s one of the best defenders in the game, and crucial to Las Vegas’ backline and scheme versatility.

How do the Liberty work to take advantage of her defensively to try? Can Stokes do enough as a ball mover, screener, and opportunistic scorer to stay on the court for starters minutes?

Stokes did a solid job in the series with Dallas of ball reversals, quick cuts, give and goes, and smart play all around to still be impactful offensively. With how quickly the Aces play, keeping decisions sharp and snappy is a big part of what makes Stokes serviceable on the offensive end.

How to Watch

The Las Vegas Aces will host the New York Liberty at Michelob Ultra Arena on Sunday October, 8th at 3:00pm EST. You can watch the game on ABC.