New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Predictions, Picks, and Odds
The New York Liberty return to their home court in Brooklyn down 0-2, facing elimination after a drubbing at the hands of the Las Vegas Aces in game two on Sunday. The Aces blasted New York 38-19 in the first quarter and never looked back, holding a lead for the entirety of the contest.
Jackie Young, A'ja Wilson, and Kelsey Plum combined for 73 points, nearly outscoring the Liberty as a trio.
The Aces are 2.5 point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, with -135 odds on the moneyline. The Liberty have +114 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 172.5.
Liberty vs. Aces Predictions
Prediction
The Aces have won both of the opening games by double digits, and comfortably controlled game two from start to finish. This has been less about the Liberty being "bad" and more about the dominance of Las Vegas.
New York has been at a disadvantage from an athleticism standpoint in the back court, something that's been prudent when discussing some of their flaws defensively. However, the quickness in reading, reacting, and making plays has been the biggest gap between the two teams. The Aces' guards have run circles around the Liberty defense with and without the ball, back cutting with force, getting to the rim with ease, and playing with a flow that makes New York appear glued to the hardwood.
That does not feel like something that can be rectified with a quick film session and a few days off. No team has ever come back in the Finals from an 0-2 deficit, and only one team has drawn it out to the fifth game of the series.
There are two key aspects to pinpoint when looking at the series moving forward for the Liberty: How can they get their guards into the paint? Can they establish their size?
Courtney Vandersloot has struggled mightily in this series, and the Liberty offense has suffered. The Aces have done an expert job at keeping her from getting inside the arc with the ball, and expertly schemed off of her when she doesn't have the ball, allowing Kelsey Plum to play free safety off of her and muck up the paint as a help defender. That can't happen again.
In tandem, can the Liberty perhaps slow down and try to work inside out through their bigs? They went to a 4/5 pick and roll a few times with Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones and found traction. I'd look to see them try to grind the pace a little and work their high lows between the frontcourt duo as they work against a team with limited post depth, maybe opening up some off-ball actions if they can draw two on the interior.
Score Prediction: Aces 92 Liberty 85
Players to Watch
Kayla Thornton has had a relatively quiet series thus far for the Liberty, playing sparingly in game one before seeing twice the minutes in game two. If the Liberty are going to even the odds, it feels like it will happen by trying to play their own brand of basketball rather than trying to match up with Vegas. Perhaps sizing up, playing a little slower, and trying to with with physicality and strength could change the tides for them.
Thornton is a capable shooter, strong rebounder, and solid all around defender that could be key for the Liberty slowing the game if they opt to play less of their starting backcourt together.
How to Watch
The Liberty will host the Aces at Barclays Center in Brooklyn on Sunday, October 15th at 3 p.m. Eastern. You can watch the game live on ABC.
