NCAA Women's Tournament Betting Odds: Stop Doubting Syracuse

The Big Dance is here!!! After a season defined by parity at the top of Division one (barring South Carolina), we have one of the most anticipated Tournaments of my lifetime slated to start this week!

I cannot wait.

After seeing all these teams play for 4 months, my mind started swimming in thoughts about these matchups, potential runs, who could thrive and why, and so much more.

While odds and lines have yet to be released for Syracuse's 6 vs 11 seed matchup, due to Auburn and Arizona still playing in for that matchup, the Orange have becoming an early favorite to be upset in the first round. I understand why people are picking against the Orange in an upcoming 6 vs 11 matchup, but I think the Orange are being underestimated. Some of the reasoning for picking against them is solid.

They’re a poor defensive rebounding team, in the 22nd percentile in defensive rebound rate according to CBB Analytics. When looking at most stats model based projections, that’s been a significant reason for why the Orange don’t seem to be favored in their opening round matchup. 

When Syracuse outrebounds or ties opposition in rebounding, they’re 22-1. When they get outrebounded, they’re 1-6. So again, that is a completely fair stance.

But, when looking at what that actual first round matchup might be, it feels misapplied. They take on the winner of the 11 seed play in game between Auburn and Arizona, both solid and gritty defensive teams. Rebounding has not been the forte of either squad.

All data per CBB Analytics.

This Syracuse team takes care of the ball at a high level (87th percentile in turnover rate), and they have one of the more dynamic shotmakers in the country in Dyaisha Fair. Kyra Wood and Alyssa Latham are one of the most dominant offensive rebounding duos in the country, both long and quick at their positions and corralling a combined 6.1 offensive boards per game.

Syracuse isn’t just a good offensive rebounding team, they’re one of the very best in the sport, and that’s been highly underrated in my opinion, especially with respect to the level of rebounding teams they’ll face in the first round. Even when factoring in a potential matchup with UConn in the second round, it’s closer than I believe it’s been indicated.

I would pick UConn more than likely in a head to head, as Paige Bueckers is one of the 4 or 5 best players in this tournament, and Aaliyah Edwards isn’t far behind her. But, again, the rebounding numbers deserve context. I think the slights to how talented the Big East is relative to the rest of the Power conferences can be a bit overstretched, but when reflecting on frontcourts in the conference as a whole, they’re very small.

Odds aren't open yet, but based on early talk, books seem to be trending towards projecting an upset off rip.