NBA Betting Picks: Lakers, Pelicans To Go Over Win Totals in West

The NBA season inches closer by the day, and with off-season moves and acquisitions largely rounded out (outside a few big names), it’s worthwhile to look ahead at season futures.

Every year, a few teams outperform their Vegas win total by a significant margin; what teams seem primed to surpass expectations in the coming season? Why might they and what can we glean from their off-seasons?

Last week, we dove into two teams in the Eastern Conference that could fit the billing. Who in their Conference counterpart could do the same?

Los Angeles Lakers: Over 47.5 Wins (-110)

I wouldn’t go as far as saying “the Lakers are undersold” but in my opinion, they’re the easiest to envision hitting the over outside the top-flight contenders. 

The top of the West strengthened with the Suns’ movement and the reigning champion Nuggets are here, but I would be comfortable putting the Lakers into that next tier just below them, grouped with a few other teams.

As per usual, health will be paramount for this Lakers’ team, particularly to their stars. However, it bears noting that their final record in 2023 isn’t that indicative of what this team evolved into. Post-trade deadline, the Lakers went 18-8, the second best winning percentage in the league to close the year with the best defensive rating in the association per Cleaning the Glass. 

I wouldn’t take that as a one-to-one heading into the year, but that equates to about a 56.5-win pace. 

Adding Gabe Vincent, who seems primed to step into a larger role, re-signing key acquisitions, and banking on some internal development has the Lakers ready to carry on with that late spring surge. 

New Orleans Pelicans: Over 44.5 wins (-110)

Is it dangerous to bet on the Pelicans being healthy? It sure is, but I am captivated by this team no matter how hard I try to be pessimistic.

The Pels saw franchise stars Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson play just 74 combined games, with both missing most of the season due to injury. This is not making a convincing case!

While it is cliche to do the “growth through adversity” line of thinking, there is some truth to that for a young team like New Orleans, to me. Dyson Daniels saw significant meaningful minutes as a rookie. Jose Alvarado took on a larger role as a quality backup point guard. Trey Murphy III made a massive leap as a player in year two, improving his efficiency in all facets as well as upping his usage.

With stars out, Murphy found himself in more situations where he could do a little more than was asked of him as a rookie.

He made real strides, literally and figuratively, off the bounce as a driver. His secondary playmaking popped. He continued his development into one of the best shooters on volume in the league.

Murphy seems cemented as a starter moving forward for this core, and a vital spacer and versatile outlet scorer for a group full of playmaking and interior presence. 

E.J. Liddell is healthy after missing his rookie season due to a knee injury. It would be unfair to expect him to be a day one contributor, but there’s real potential for a deep bench role for him to round out the frontcourt as the season goes on. 

Rookie Jordan Hawkins brings another dynamic shooting threat into the fold for a team that finished 29th in three-point attempts per game last season. 

Is there an unexpected leap or growth from another one of the young players on the roster? Do they end up healthier than anticipated? They also feel ripe to make a trade that sacrifices some of their long-term depth if they get off to a promising start.

Considering this team won 42 games in spite of a wealth of adversity this past season, including a 23-13 stretch before the calendar turned, it doesn’t feel unreasonable to envision New Orleans outperforming its win total.

2023-24 Regular Season Win Totals - Western Conference

Here is a look at the over/under win totals for every team in the West except the Portland Trail Blazers, via FanDuel on August 8:

• Denver Nuggets 53.5
• Phoenix Suns 52.5
• Golden State Warriors 48.5
• Los Angeles Lakers 47.5
• Los Angeles Clippers 46.5
• Memphis Grizzlies 46.5
• Dallas Mavericks 44.5
• Minnesota Timberwolves 44.5
• Sacramento Kings 44.5
• New Orleans Pelicans 44.5
• Oklahoma City Thunder 44.5
• Utah Jazz 35.5
• Houston Rockets 31.5
• San Antonio Spurs 28.5