Liberty vs. Aces: Commissioner’s Cup Odds, Predictions and Picks for Aug. 15

The 2023 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup is set and ready for action tonight at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas. The reigning champ and reigning Cup winning Aces host the red hot New York Liberty in the first of two matchups this week.

The Commissioner’s Cup is an in-season competition played out during regular season games with players competing for a prize pool, as well as teams playing for an established and chosen charitable venture decided on before the season.

Las Vegas beat the 2021 WNBA Champion Chicago Sky last season in the Commissioner’s Cup, with the Seattle Storm beating the Connecticut Sun the season prior in the inaugural showdown.

The Aces are 7.5-point favorites, per FanDuel, with moneyline odds of -330. The Liberty has +265 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is listed at 177.5 points as this should be a high-scoring affair.

PREDICTION

Since the All-Star Break, the Liberty and Aces are 1st and 2nd respectively in wins; the Liberty are 10-2 and the Aces are 8-1. The Aces are first in net rating (14.1) and the Liberty are 2nd (11.5) with the Liberty the winners of the most recent matchup between the two teams on August 6th.

New York is currently on pace to set the record as the greatest regular season shooting team in W history, leading the way with nearly 30 attempts from deep per game (29.3); the next closest team is the 2021 New York Liberty at 27.7 per game according to her Hoop Stats. 

To make it all the more impressive, the Liberty are the most accurate (38%) of any team in the top ten of three point attempts per season.

However, the Aces are just outside that top ten, with a chance to enter it, while shooting even better than the Liberty at 38.9% on the season. Las Vegas is still on pace to comfortably finish the season as the greatest offense the W has seen, averaging 112.8 points per 100 possessions (This current iteration of the Liberty are 6th on the all time list at present).

Point being, we are witnessing two historic offensive teams, and teams in general face off in prime time. Who can cause more defensive havoc?

The Aces will be without Candace Parker as she continues to heal from foot surgery, but still boast the best defense in the league. The recent matchup between the two teams, however, did prove that there are some shortcomings sans Parker that need to be tweaked and cleaned up before the playoffs. 

How the Aces’ fill their fifth spot in lineups is vital; Alysha Clark is healthy after missing a game due to a back injury. Kiah Stokes has been fantastic defensively and on the glass, but her offensive limitations are more present when she’s asked to start.

New York, on the other hand, has started to find answers to their lineup questions after almost dealing with an excess of lineup versatility early on in the year. Jonquel Jones and Betnijah Laney have both been found with more volume in the flow of the offense and it’s paid dividends for the Liberty. 

With the state of both teams headed into the game, New York seems primed to continue to their winning ways as the Aces go through some of the ebbs and flows of a long season.

Score Prediction: Liberty 94, Aces 87

PLAYERS TO WATCH

A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart are without question the players to watch. 

The current Players of the Week in either conference, Wilson and Stewart are both frontrunners for the 2023 MVP award alongside Sun star Alyssa Thomas. Both have hit their stride, notching 40 point games in the month of August, playing exceptional defense, and spurring on the two best teams in the league. These games where we get to see both play one another in their primes should be treasured.

HOW TO WATCH

The Las Vegas Aces will host the New York Liberty at 9 p.m. ET on August 15th, 2023, at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. You can watch the game streamed live on Amazon Prime.