Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Predictions, Picks, and Odds

The New York Liberty owned game three of the 2023 WNBA Finals, winning comfortably by double digits and routing the Aces at Barclays Center. They'll host another home game with their backs against the wall, eliminated with a loss, in Brooklyn on Wednesday evening.

In an unfortunate turn of events, Aces' starters Chelsea Gray and Kiah Stokes are both OUT for game four with foot injuries. They're questionable to return for a potential game five according to Aces' head coach Becky Hammon.

The Liberty are 5.5 point favorites with -225 odds on the moneyline per DraftKings Sportsbook. The Aces have +185 moneyline odds to pull the upset and the scoring total is set at 168.5.

Prediction

With Gray and Stokes out for the Aces, this series shifts drastically. Game three was an embodiment of a perfect storm for the Liberty, executing to the utmost while also catching the worst game the Aces have played since mid-August, and perhaps the entire season. That's not to diminish the win, but it's striking in contrast to the first two games.

Gray is the best point guard in basketball, central to everything the Aces do offensively while also being a key part of why they finished with the top ranked defense in the league. Stokes is also crucial to the defense, and of equal importance, imperative for spelling A'ja Wilson at points and providing minutes in bench lineups. The Aces have limited depth, tested further with three starters out (Candace Parker).

Alysha Clark, the Sixth Player of the Year, is expected to start, and Cayla George was seen practicing with the starters on Tuesday.

It's worth noting that the Aces, and particularly A'ja Wilson, missed shots I would expect to hit, even contested. How those fall in game four will be huge for Las Vegas' hopes of closing the series before returning home. Jackie Young was mostly rendered out of game three as a whole, as Betnijah Laney was stapled to her on the defensive end. This is a big game for her to bounce back and find ways to attack New York's defense.

More importantly, Vegas finding their defense, and particularly forcing turnovers to get out on the break, will be key.

Score Prediction: Liberty 88 Aces 81

Players to Watch

Sabrina Ionescu had her best game of the series in game three, scoring in single digits, but expertly picking apart the defense with her playmaking. Defensively, she was critical making plays off of the ball as she took on a new assignment guarding Kiah Stokes and playing more as a free safety of sorts. On the ball when matched up with Vegas' guards, she moved her feet better and fought for space.

Especially with Gray out, I look to Ionescu to go off as a scorer. Gray is arguably the most important defender in Las Vegas' switch heavy scheme, capable of using guarding up on some bigs with her strength, using her length and timing rotating as a help defender, and staying in front of guards when asked to. Without her swiss-army knife skill set, it feels likely that Las Vegas may struggle with some of their off-ball principles.

Ionescu hasn't scored well in this series, but she's been a constant threat the Aces have refused to let get loose. With any sort of fall off on their focus guarding off-ball actions, I'd bank on Ionescu getting loose.

How to Watch

The New York Liberty will host the Las Vegas Aces at 8 pm EST at Barclays Center on Wednesday, October 18th. The game can be watched live on ESPN.