Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Predictions, Picks, and Odds 9/26/23

The Las Vegas Aces took a 1-0 series lead against the Dallas Wings in the WNBA Semifinals, trouncing Dallas in Sin City, another step towards a trip back to the Finals for the reigning champs.

Vegas scored 97 points, registering a 123.8 offensive rating for the game, which would shatter the single season offensive efficiency record.

This game was an outright domination from the Aces, particularly in the second half. Reigning MVP, current DPOY, and 2023 MVP hopeful A’ja Wilson had a 34 point scoring outburst, and was largely uncontainable regardless of what the Wings did.

Jackie Young chipped in with a near triple double, 19 points, 10 boards, and 7 assists and Kelsey Plum scored 25 points, nailing 5 threes.

The Wings were uncharacteristically poor on the glass, losing the rebounding margin by 7 to Vegas, a decisive part of their loss.

The Aces are 10.5 point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, with -575 odds on the moneyline. The Wings have +440 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 175.5.

Prediction

The biggest thing I’m looking for in game two is how the Wings adjust defensively. To open the series, they didn’t seem to have much comfortability in what ball screen coverage they wanted to run against the Aces.

While there is value in mixing and matching how they apply pressure defensively, something they’ve done all year, it resulted in a lot of miscommunication that burned them to start.

For instance, Kiah Stokes played nearly 29 minutes, only taking three shots, but was a significant positive for the Aces. She isn’t a threat to shoot from deep or often score, which is not a slight to her, but something the Wings need to find a way to weaponize. I’d look to see Dallas blitz (hard hedge) screens that Stokes sets, taking the ball out of Vegas’ guards hands and forcing Stokes to be more involved with the ball. 

Las Vegas’ ball and player movement absolutely killed Dallas’ defense, and finding ways to quite literally slow down their offense is pivotal.

Wilson’s versatility and movement were breathtaking in game one. 

She ran the court in transition after shutting down possessions, finishing with six combined steals and blocks. The Aces ran her off of some screens, adding even more difficulty for Dallas’ frontcourt in defending her. Perhaps most punishing was how well and effectively Wilson moved without the ball, swooping in for putbacks, sprinting to free herself up in space, and always making herself a threat.

She has such effective counters and such a well-rounded elite skill set that all you can hope to do is work her towards contested jumpers, but then you open up the chance that she pitches the ball and runs to get it back in a better spot.

Dallas needs more easy looks to keep themselves in this game.

They shot just 44% inside the arc, and while much of that can be attributed to excellent defense from their opposition, Dallas did themselves no favors with their shot selection. Contested jumpers off the dribble and forced layups through contact were prevalent. When the Wings don’t play with a blend of aggression and patience, they can’t get the most of their size and physicality, a sizable issue in game one.

This felt like the first semifinals game that the majority of Dallas played… because it was. I expect them to be a little more settled in for game two, and they’ll need to be to have a chance at evening the series before it heads back to Texas.

Score Prediction: Aces 92 Wings 85

Players to Watch

Jackie Young was phenomenal in game one, going 5 of 6 from beyond the arc, punishing the Wings for leaving her open at any point.

She was tremendous in transition, decisive off the dribble, and is just a joy to watch, especially in juxtaposition to where her game was two years ago. From Phoenix sagging off of her in the playoffs, daring her to shoot, to staring down defenders and posing after hitting confident shots in rhythm is a leap that deserves so much love.

In turn, the attention she’s generating beyond the arc has continued to allow her dribble drive game to proliferate, and she repeatedly burned the Wings with her ability to get into the paint and create for her teammates.

How to Watch

The Las Vegas Aces will host the Dallas Wings at Michelob Ultra Arena on Tuesday September, 26th at 10:00pm EST. You can watch the game on ESPN2.