Keegan Murray Is the Most Vital and Intriguing Piece of the Sacramento Kings’ Future

Over the course of a sweeping 2 hours and 24 minutes, the Sacramento Kings went from the top of the pecking order in the Pascal Siakam trade hierarchy to pulling out entirely less than an hour before they tipped off against the Raptors.

Was it a smokescreen? Was it a one-sided gloss over for leverage? 

It was certainly enough to pique my interest and send me down the rabbit hole of what that could look like for the Kings, what might make it work, the questions that would arise from adding Siakam, and how he could raise the ceiling of Sacramento. Even with the fleeting trade dashed, I kept coming back to one thing: Keegan Murray is the most vital part of Sacramento's future.

If they'd added Siakam, a player almost certainly up for a max contract this coming off-season, having a rookie scale player that can contribute is essential to making a team with roughly $100 million committed to the top three players (factoring in Fox and Sabonis).

When thinking about the potential moves for the Kings and how they may try and build further out, it's worth considering this conceptually. Regardless of whether or not the player they do commit for gets the full max, having a player the mold of Keegan that is a worthy starter is essential. It's important both from the on court standpoint and with respect to cap flexibility. If you have a young player that's making an impact, but also has potential, they are inherently more valuable on the aggregate than someone earning roughly the same amount on a veteran contract. 

Having a player on a like-sized contract to those vets filling out most rosters that provides lineup versatility and upside is so crucial. For reference on players close to Keegan's cap hit ($8.4 mil) that aren't on their first deal

• Jae'Sean Tate ($6.5 mil)
• Georges Niang ($8.8 mil)
• Pat Connaughton ($9.4 mil)
• Grayson Allen ($8.9 mil)

This is the most difficult and critical part of unlocking the upside and potential depth of a highly competitive playoff team. Both in impact metrics and on court performance, I'd point to Murray as comfortably the best player of the bunch. He's versatile, manning both forward spots, shoots the ball on volume and efficiently, and gives you more leeway around the two stars with which Sacramento has built their team due to that flexibility both in contract and play.

One of the immediate first thoughts I'd had when the initial rumblings of Siakam to Sacramento yesterday "They can't move Keegan."

It's not just cap construct hemming and hawing: You trade for Pascal Siakam to have in tandem with a player like Keegan. The Kings need more length and versatility to add wiggle room and flexibility to their core. The league and its constituents can be overly wing happy, but in the case of Sacramento, supplementing Fox and Sabonis with the right wings, and many of them, can't go under the radar.

Outside their height and position, little is similar about Murray and Siakam on the hardwood. However, I couldn't help but think of Siakam's trajectory as a sort of parallel for Keegan. Again, not the same, but the idea of it: a forward who came in with a baseline skill set, contributing to a good team, growing into a starter on a high level playoff team, and then an eventual star.

Keegan's shooting ability gave him an immediate lift as a rookie and was huge in securing a spot as a starter on last year's Kings squad, and it's worth noting that Siakam came in much more raw with respect to his skill set than Keegan. But the idea is there: A player who comes in and makes an impact immediately in a siloed role, steadily building their game outwards from there. That's the idea with me for Keegan Murray.

While his numbers haven't shot up tremendously this year, and his assertion offensively has been inconsistent (last night was a step in the right direction), his growth as a defender has been astounding. As a rookie, Keegan was long and started off in the right places more often than not, doing positive things as a rotational defender off the ball. But, his on-ball defense left much to be desired.

That's a different story in 2023-24.

His defensive footwork has improved tremendously, much more comfortable sliding and capable of changing direction more fluidly.

He's not an incredible screen navigator, but he's gotten better at it and is really solid for someone his size. 

Sacramento has deployed him (as well as Fox) as their primary stopper, throwing him at any and every offensive archetype. He's guarded Trae Young, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Anthony Edwards, and Paolo Banchero over the past few weeks, which is about as many different kinds of offensive threats as you could throw at someone.

That's not to say he's hit an elite status, but you can see the framework. Blow-bys of yesteryear have become contested shots for offensive players the past few months, and that's a massive win.

The next step is physicality and playing with/through force (applicable to both ends). He's adept at using high hands and his wingspan to make things difficult and stay in front, but I really want to see Keegan work to dictate more with his hands and body. There's room to be more assertive at the point of attack, and I'd love to see what that looks like if he adapts that into his game.

Speaking of the physicality on the offensive end, we've seen some growth from Keegan off the bounce this season even if it's not demonstrative. While he isn't getting to the rim more this season, he's gotten into the paint more: 40.7% of his shots this season are within 16 feet of the basket compared to 32.7% last year. His touch in the intermediary has been absolutely stellar, upticking from relative struggles in floater range last year.

Murray is shooting ~58% on runners per Synergy, taking about one per game, both more frequently and efficiently than he did as a rookie (48% last year, which is still very good).

He's still mostly one speed coming downhill (MAX SPEED) which hinders some of his finishing at the rim, but finding more ways to embrace contact and play at multiple speeds could be huge for unlocking the next phases of his scoring. He's tall and long, but fairly slight with higher hips: If he gets bumped on his drives or off his spot, he can struggle to finish.

What makes him special is his lateral fluidity at his size, the fluidness he has coming off of screens and operating in multiple planes of motion. I brought in up in an article during Keegan's breakout at his first Summer League, but it's hard to not be reminded of an underrated star of the past when watching Keegan play and thinking of his development.

There are some differences of course, but Danny Granger dominated as a similar mover and curl screen maestro. Both players roughly 6'8/6'9, able to displace with side to side movements, backsteps, and the shooting prowess to make it hurt, attacking the inside was a logical evolution from there on out.

Funnily enough, Granger was more inside out, growing into this mold as a three point shooter throughout his rookie contract. He was stronger and a bit more filled out than Keegan coming out of school, while also not being the same leaper and athlete Keegan was due to the plethora of lower body injuries he'd already endured during his collegiate career.

What can we take away from players of similar archetypes that had different developmental paths?

Granger won in the mid-range and the paint with strength, craft, and touch, but was relatively average to slightly below around the rim. He supplemented that with his growth as a movement shooter and getting to the foul line at a very high rate in his prime (~7 trips per game).

I'm not sure Keegan will ever be a player who gets that kind of whistle, partially because so much of Granger's attempts that drew fouls were out of the post and off of more isolation attempts. Yet, the point is that those opportunities could really be on the table for him as he keeps developing. He's more than "just a shooter" at this moment, but his offensive repertoire has could expand drastically into new play types and modes of attack as he keeps rounding out. 

Point being: Keegan Murray is a really solid, plus impact, and significant player right now as a 2nd year pro, but there is much more that he could become than I think typically meets the eye or is attributed to him.

He is crucial in the now for Sacramento, but he is PIVOTAL for the future.