Jaime Jaquez Jr. Is a Star in the Making for the Miami Heat

Nothing captivates my mind quite like growth and development in basketball. Finding the next star, next undervalued role player, the next great court vision maestro... there's beauty in that, but what gets me is "why?"

Stats showcase results. Those results highlight end points of possessions or things that happen within them. You can dive into and understand so much with numbers, or with the film itself, but again, why does something work or not work?

Why is someone's jumper so effective? Why are they able to get so open? Why do they always get stripped driving the slot? Why are they so effective, but not getting run from the coaching staff? 

It's so fascinating, because no matter how you answer, there's always another why that can branch off in turn. All I can think about the past few weeks, creeping into my head every time I watch a Heat game, every time I do a stats query, every time I think about this past draft; why was I so wrong about Jaime Jaquez Jr.?

On the season in 30 games played, Jaquez is averaging roughly 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, scoring on an efficient 60.7% true-shooting clip.

Condense that down to his last 15 games, and Jaquez is averaging 16.9 points, 4.2 boards, and 2.9 assists. He's shooting 51.1% from the field, getting to the line more, and playing strong defense. He rarely turns over the ball, at least not in a manner you scratch your head at.

Jaquez just makes continuous winning plays, without having many, if any, actually being run for him. He's scored below 14 points just three times in that stretch, in single digits just once: The consistency as a first year pro has been incredibly impressive.

Every time I watched Jaquez the past few years at UCLA, I always enjoyed the total package of what he brought, but had substantial questions of his shooting ability and how he'd fit in an offense that didn't necessarily empower what he did best in college: Post-Up.

Filtering for games played, there are 65 players in the NBA that post-up at least once per game

While Jaquez posts up roughly 1.5 times per game (42 times total including pass outs: Synergy data is not always on point, but is solid for pointing out trends), he ranks second in the out of that group of 65 in post-up efficiency, generating 1.381 points per possession, an absurd number.

For reference, Nikola Jokic averages 1.198 ppp and Joel Embiid 1.126. That's not to say Jaquez is a better post player, as Embiid and Jokic post up as many times in a week as Jaquez has this season, but rather to point out that the impact is significant.

He'll get to the block with duck-in's in early offense, off slipping as the screener, and at time attacking a mismatch as an immediate option when he has a lesser defender on him. He's a swift and intuitive decision-maker, adept at making the right reads when he draws two defenders, which he has forced often given how well he can score against single coverage in Miami's offense.

Jaime isn't necessarily a "pretty" passer, but I'd argue he's far more effective and impactful as a playmaker than his assist numbers indicate.

What makes Jaquez' post game hit so hard is the sheer variety and how it's been baked into Miami's offense. You don't often think of "variety" when you think of a post-up, but I'd argue the creativity of how teams utilize post-ups is one of the more interesting offensive shifts of the past few seasons. Jaquez is the next benefactor in the lineage of wings that can post.

Jaquez possesses masterful footwork in most every facet of the game, along with great balance, part of what helps make him such a deft finisher despite being a fairly average vertical athlete. He's more reliant on strength, physicality, and counters, but remarkably sound in all those categories. So much of what sets apart a Jaquez offensive possession is how many subtle shifts he makes with his body throughout, a large part of why he's thrived in Miami.

Watch here as the Heat flow into early offense with Jaime initiating.

As an immediate sidenote, actions involving the duo of Jaquez and Duncan Robinson have felt near automatic good offense for the Heat (They have a 119.7 offensive rating when the pair share the court).

Robinson flies up from the corner to receive the ball from Jaquez, who immediately reads how his defender reacts before darting back to receive the ball. Robinson flares (huge for forcing the defense to react) and then Jaquez flows to the high block and shifts. He surveys and crab dribbles before receiving the screen and not using it as the screener moves to the weak side dunker spot, giving Jaquez an emptied out corner and a much slighter defender in Dalen Terry on his heels backing up towards the rim. Jaquez uses his strength, finishes with craft, and then goes to the line for one more.

It seems relatively simple, and in honesty it is, but the wrinkles matter. Jaquez is not a particularly bursty downhill driver, but the strength is phenomenal and he's a great cutter. Adding in the potential cut early and the quick pitch with Robinson adds movement to the defense and gives him a bit of wiggle room to maneuver and gain an initial advantage.

He's capable of straight up running a ball screen, but the nuance makes it hit harder, especially for Jaime and what his strengths are.

He's not a player that's going to create tons of traction off of a traditional pick and roll getting downhill and creating separation, so the Heat tweak things to tip the balance. It's fun in watching Miami's screens for him, as I feel they're more about creating indecision rather than separation.

Watch as Kyle Lowry sort of pinballs with his initial screen and the flip. Jaquez can post and toast either defender, but especially once he gets Okoro overextended baseline on an island, he's at his best.

It's a "harder" mode of offense, created in a less standard way, but again, it's how Jaime Jaquez operates, and he does it extremely well.

Add that into what he's brought as a second side player when playing off the team's stars, and it's a highly impactful change-up. He can make connective plays quickly and with precision. His shot is still lower volume, but has been steadily ok. He has versatility on the defensive end with room to keep growing. 

Jaime Jaquez is just a damned good basketball.

So I come back to the question: Why was I wrong about Jaime?

Full stop, I did not believe in his jumper. I was worried that teams would be averse to giving him room to operate into his upside if he commanded unders routinely. I like the encompassing skill sets, but wasn't sure how he could slot in and be optimized, as he's not your everyday 3+D+pass wing. 

Rather than continually opening myself to what would happen if a team DID lean into what makes Jaime a very good player, I always got hung up on what it would look because there were non-traditional aspects that were heavily baked into his game.

I don't think Jaime Jaquez should be a showcase that every player can become this unexpected version of themselves, rather to point out that there are more ways to view things than what you think the most common outcome will be. Would Jaime play as well on another team? It's pretty clear to me that he's a legit NBA rotation player, no matter what. But, when looking at what makes him appear as a near impending star, is that he went to an organization with total belief in what he could be, but also who he already is. That can't go undersold.

If a team wasn't going to deploy Jaquez in a way that would've played to his strengths, rather trying to mold him to be something else, you lower the ceiling of his impact. Instead, the Heat were the perfect marriage of fit, opportunity, and buy-in.

They needed size. They needed more scoring. They needed a player who could flat out play that wasn't mistake prone; Miami is not a kind place to be as an NBA rookie!

That makes what Jaquez has done even more impressive to me. I don't intend to make it some sort of dissertation on The Discourse, but it's just different. He's in a totally different environment than rookies who immediately have 25% plus usage. There are established vets, a hierarchy in the offense, and real expectations. 

To find a role, make an impact, and then grow outwards from within that is pretty special. In some ways, that mold seems to be just as crucial in upper tier development as the opportunity to experiment with repercussion.

I don't know what Jaquez' ultimate ceiling and upper echelon will be in the league, but with the framework he's already showcased and built upon not even halfway into his rookie year, it's past time to reconsider what that might be.