Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Predictions, Picks, and Odds 9/24/23

The reigning champion Las Vegas Aces are set to host the Dallas Wings to open up their WNBA Semifinals series for Game One this coming Sunday in Sin City. 

The Aces took home the season series, 3-1, but this was a wildly fun and competitive slate between the two teams.

It’s worth noting that these two teams have both changed drastically over the course of the regular season and into the first round of the playoffs. While keeping track of that, it stands out that the Wings and Aces played each other in rather rapid succession, which adds another layer or shade to the equation of parsing through their upcoming series.

The Aces are 10.5 point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, with -600 odds on the moneyline. The Wings have +440 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 174.5.

Prediction

Candace Parker, who is still out indefinitely with injury, played the first two games of the season series with the Wings, and the Aces have not lost to the Wings without her, winning both games by double figures.

What’s so fascinating about this series is that both sides present legitimate matchup issues for the other; which team can take advantage of their own abilities to attack while negating the other’s?

What I’m most looking for from the Aces is how they look to put Dallas’ size into difficult situations on the defensive end. If they play with pace and tempo in general, but particularly in the halfcourt, can they work to put Wings starting center Teiara McCowan into precarious moments?

McCowan is an impactful rim protector at 6’7, and a force on the glass, but the Aces are capable of spreading the floor 4-out and moving the ball with intention, picking apart lapses. If they look to attack her early and often with high ball screens, getting her out of her comfort zone, they can really pick at some of the creases in Dallas’ defense.

Conversely, how do the Wings opt to get the most out of their size on the offensive end?

Dallas is immaculate when they blend their offense, pushing the pace in transition, attacking the offensive glass, and working in their post-oriented offense. When they work the ball side to side and keep the pace moving even after they get the ball down court, they are nearly impossible to guard outside of picking off passes and hoping shooters miss.

Especially once the Wings look to attack with high lows and side entry (moving the ball from the key to the wing and back to the post), it becomes difficult to handle their offense in full form.

The Aces will have to toggle between playing double big to match up with the Wings and playing smaller with Alysha Clark at the four to try and make them uncomfortable. Part of the beauty of the Aces is that they can thrive in both forms. While the Wings have firepower in droves, I expect the experience and crispness of the Aces to carry them in game one and this series at large.

Score Prediction: Aces 92 Wings 86

Players to Watch

While this series is star-studded, a player aforementioned that is not a star but stars in her role is who I’m most curious to see impact the series; Alysha Clark.

The Sixth Player of the Year has been vital for Las Vegas’ lineup versatility, especially after Parker’s injury. She unlocks lineups playing small, she can slide down to the three to allow the Aces to match up with size, and is a quality passer and knockdown shooter.

Clark can attack mismatches in the post and is arguably the Aces’ best perimeter defender. There are few things Clark can’t do on the court, and her ability to provide the Aces with more answers and options will be key.

How to Watch

The Las Vegas Aces will host the Dallas Wings at Michelob Ultra Arena on Sunday September, 24th at 5:00pm EST. You can watch the game on ESPN2.