Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty Predictions, Picks, and Odds 9/29/23
The Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty are tied up 1-1 in the WNBA Semis, with New York taking the 2nd game at Barclays.
Headed into a two game slate, now back in Uncasville, the Connecticut Sun are relishing the opportunity of two guaranteed home games.
The Liberty are 4 point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, with -175 odds on the moneyline. The Sun have +145 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 159.
Sun vs. Liberty Betting Predictions
Prediction
The Liberty found their offensive stride last game, uncorking their offense with subtle adjustments. Courtney Vandersloot struggled to get into the paint in game one, as the Sun expertly went under her screens, denied re-screens, and were fantastic containing her off the bounce.
In game two, the Liberty found more wiggle room with pitch plays and getting Vandersloot cutting off of the ball to get the ball, essentially getting her a downhill start without the opportunity for the Sun to blitz or stifle a ball screen.
It’s worth noting that Rebecca Allen’s foul trouble played a significant part in the Sun struggling to keep up on either end.
Sabrina Ionescu did a much better job driving into the lane and drawing contact on Allen, where the majority of her fouls took place.
With Allen out and less spacing on the floor, the Liberty played a great deal of zone, hindering Connecticut’s ability to use pace and movement. The Sun were extremely tentative, which played a part in their turnovers and some forced shots, but their lack of spacing caused some of that tentativeness, a bit of a chicken/egg phenomena.
The Sun cannot afford to get into foul trouble tonight. Their bread and butter, as shown in game one, was aggressive and precise defense that allowed them to get out and play with pace offensively. They need to find their way back to that and play with the decisiveness they won with to take game three.
Score Prediction: Liberty 86 Sun 81
Players to Watch
Ty Harris is crucial in this game, and series at large, for the Sun.
The second half of her season in Uncasville was punctuated by her confidence as a scorer, mixing in her shot-making with quality playmaking.
She hasn’t had that same level of gumption in this round of the playoffs, and the Sun need it from her to buoy their offense.
For the Liberty, Courtney Vandersloot remains their X-factor. Without her creating dribble penetration and getting the Sun defense into motion, everything is so much harder for New York’s offense. Her two corner threes were a massive boost last game as well, as she’s been a focal point for the Sun to help off of when she doesn’t have the ball.
How to Watch
The Connecticut Sun will host the New York Liberty at Mohegan Sun Arena on Friday September, 29th at 7:30pm EST. You can watch the game on ESPN2.