Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty Predictions, Picks, and Odds 9/26/23

The Connecticut Sun won Game One of the WNBA Semifinals in a landslide victory, running away with it against the New York Liberty on New York’s home court in Brooklyn.

Connecticut blitzed not only the Liberty, but the spread and expectations.

New York looks to rally for Game Two after Head Coach Sandy Brondello called their performance “the worst of the season,” the worst the team shot from the field and lowest they scored all year.

The Liberty are 8 point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, with -375 odds on the moneyline. The Sun have +295 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 161.5.

Prediction

The Sun executed their game plan well, particularly in the second half, working to invert their offense and force New York’s guards into more difficult defensive assignments. By pulling Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones away from the basket like they were able to for much of the game, the Sun dictated their terms offensively.

Can they do it again?

New York started to crossmatch Stewart off of DeWanna Bonner and onto Bec Allen, working to get her back into primary help positions off the ball. How will they potentially adjust on Sun star Alyssa Thomas as she operates the offense?

Connecticut had some wrinkles in their offense to counteract potential counters from the Liberty and they worked well.

As Sun coach Stephanie White said postgame, their cuts all have to be executed like they’re meant to score, their screens have to be forceful and intentional, and they need to play with decisiveness in all facets. It’s extremely effective when executed well, but it’s hard to maintain for an entire game.

On the other end, it’s not as simple as the Liberty “just missing shots,” as the Sun played an expert game defensively.

Thomas was electric defending Stewart. They were locked in on their off-ball defense and left little room to attack pockets when switching. Point being, there were few “open” shots missed by the Liberty as much was contested and difficult. Connecticut’s length hindered New York’s passing and pace.

The Sun ran Sabrina Ionescu off the line, forcing her into help in the paint, blocking her layup attempts numerous times.

In order to open the floor back up again and take advantage of their size, the Liberty need to create some openings outside the arc with their movement. It’s worth noting as well that it feels nigh impossible that Stewart will go 7 of 25 from the field again in the series, but Thomas is the most game defender in pro basketball to hold her to it.

Score Prediction: Liberty 82 Sun 76

Players to Watch

Olivia Nelson-Ododa played a significant role in Connecticut’s win in Game One, and they’ll need more of the same from her throughout the series. The second-year big is lean and long, not necessarily the best post defender at this stage of her career, but she’s excellent at defending pick and rolls and playing aggressive defense, which the Sun used to their advantage.

She also worked to front Jonquel Jones and deny her the ball while also jostling and fighting on the glass. Her impact supersedes her final box score stats.

Offensively, she snagged a few key rebounds and moved well without the ball to open herself as an outlet. She did just enough offensively to warrant attention while bringing it all defensively.

For the Liberty, Betnijah Laney will be key. 

Laney went 1-9 in Game One, struggling to find her rhythm, and while her defense will be vital regardless, this matchup is more important for the other frontcourt members given how the Sun play.

She has the skill set and physicality to put the fear of God in Connecticut’s defense, especially considering how much focus might be put on New York’s other stars.

When Laney finds her balance of moving the ball, hitting shots, and being aggressive as a scorer, the Liberty offense is near unguardable.

How to Watch

The New York Liberty will host the Connecticut Sun at Barclays Arena on Tuesday September, 26th at 8:00pm EST. You can watch the game on ESPN2.