Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty Predictions, Picks, and Odds 9/24/23

The New York Liberty have advanced to the WNBA Semifinals for the first time in nearly a decade, set to take on the Connecticut Sun in a best of 5 series. New York owned the season series in a four game sweep, the only team the Sun didn’t beat at least once during the regular season.

Connecticut comes in fresh off of blowing out the Minnesota Lynx in an elimination game away from their homecourt. This is the fifth straight season Connecticut has made at least the semifinals of the postseason.

Can Connecticut find some magic and make things interesting, potentially grinding out the series? Or, will the Liberty continue their romp to the WNBA Finals and a showdown with whomever comes out of Aces/Wings?

The Liberty are 7.5 point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook, with -340 odds on the moneyline. The Sun have +270 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 162.5.

Prediction

The New York Liberty are in a sort of zone that just feels Finals bound. The culmination of their regular season has paid dividends in the late season and into the postseason. This team went through so many iterations of itself during the year, testing new defenses, layering their offense to add wrinkles, and working to find a symbiotic flow within their starting lineup.

While their first round series wasn’t pretty, they hit just 3 threes as a team outside of Betnijah Laney and Sabrina Ionescu, they showcased their versatility. Even without shots falling from deep, largely their bread and butter, they still achieved what they wanted with their offense; moving the ball East/West to open up driving lanes, rollers, cutters, and post up opportunities.

First and foremost, this team will shoot better over a larger sample, but it cannot be undersold the level that they’ve hit where even when the shooting goes cold, their offense can still hum. Jonquel Jones was perhaps the best player in that series, averaging 19.5 points and 13 boards while shooting 61.9% from the floor. She was fantastic defensively, containing Mystics’ star Elena Delle Donne and protecting the rim at a remarkably high level as well.

On the offensive end, she couldn’t be contained out of pick and roll and was aggressive ducking in for quick postups and was huge on the offensive glass.

With Jones fully loaded and ready to take on her former team, the Sun have a tall task defensively.

The Sun’s defensive approach and smaller lineups require precision and intensity; their rotations have to be aggressive and timed well. Their ball pressure has to be on ten, or post entry or passes to cutters will be too easy. They need to be tight on the glass, and able to win the possession battle with forced turnovers to set up their offense.

Considering the flow this Liberty team is in, that only ramps up even more with regards to execution. Lack of intensity was killer for the Sun in game two against the Lynx. Lethargy and laxness results in easy buckets in the paint and created from there on out.

The margin for error is razor thin for Connecticut in a way that makes it difficult to see them winning three games, but if they can steal game one, that changes the calculus. 

Can they attack the right personnel with schemes? Can they get enough out of their guard play, admittedly a weak spot at times this year.

Score Prediction: Liberty 88 Sun 80

Players to Watch

DeWanna Bonner is vital for the Sun in every facet this series, coming off a fantastic showing against the Lynx averaging 22 points, 10 boards, and 4.7 assists per game while shooting 44% from deep on over 8 attempts per game.

Her synergy with Alyssa Thomas in pick and roll was huge during the game three win in Minnesota.

Connecticut needs her blend of shooting and driving ability to really get into the teeth of New York’s defense and stretch them out at the same time. 

Defensively, Bonner has gone underrated for how well she’s played on that end. Playing mostly at the three this past season, Bonner spent much of her time guarding centers in 2023 after Brionna Jones’ injury. While she is undoubtedly outmatched in the post, her ability to use her length on and off the ball is so crucial to this team setting their edge in the halfcourt.

Her play is essential to the Sun winning.

How to Watch

The New York Liberty will host the Connecticut Sun at Barclays Arena on Sunday September, 24th at 1:00pm EST. You can watch the game on ESPN.