Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty Predictions, Picks, and Odds 9/01/23

In their final regular season showdown, the Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty face off on a nationally televised Friday night game.

After a raucous 95-90 overtime win just over a week ago in Connecticut by the Liberty, one in which they were down over 20 points early on in the game, this looks to be another barnburner. The Liberty have been the best team in the W over the second half of the season, blazing trails with a high powered offense and tightening up on the defensive end.

Connecticut has looked to find new ways to win after the scout was written on them; it could prove to be for the better in the postseason even after some rockiness in the halfcourt on offense and tweaks to their defensive principles and schemes.

The Liberty are 7.5 point favorites, per FanDuel, with -340 odds on the moneyline. The Sun have +260 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 162.5.

Prediction

New York is playing at a record-setting pace since the All-Star break, currently operating with what would rank as the best offense in league history over the last 17 games. They’re shooting the leather off the ball while getting up more attempts from three than any other team has… ever. The spacing they play with while also currently leading the league comfortably in assist rate over that same time frame is immaculate.

All that is to say that the Sun once again have an extremely tall task ahead of them. Connecticut’s defense is amongst the league’s best, particularly at defending pick and roll actions with their activity, causing turnovers at a high level. However, defending in the post has been a problem as the Sun lack a true paint presence against the best post-up players in the league. 

Especially with how New York has been able to better utilize Jonquel Jones in the latter half of the season (She had 21 points and 14 rebounds in the last meeting, the majority of which came in the second half), how can the Sun counter?

It’s worth noting that DiJonai Carrington, a strong contender for Sixth Player of the Year, missed last game against the Liberty. However, she will miss this game as well, having already been ruled out with the same left foot injury.

If Connecticut’s guard play is consistent in this game (it was not last matchup), the Sun have a chance to take the game, as the Liberty can struggle to contain paint penetration.

Score Prediction: Liberty 92 Sun 86

Players to Watch

Tiffany Hayes is essential for the Sun. When she’s knifing into the lane, dishing the rock, or scoring at the rim, the Sun are better for it, as she’s the best rim threat on the team outside of MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas. Particularly in this matchup, she’s vital on the defensive end as a player who can put added length on Sabrina Ionescu.

After she fouled out last game, the offense started to struggle mightily in the halfcourt, but the defense took an even larger step back as a smaller Natisha Hiedeman struggled against Ionescu’s strength and size.

As mentioned already, expect Jonquel Jones to be a focal point in this game. She corralled 4 critical offensive rebounds in the last meeting against her former team, and her ability to add a breaking point for the Liberty against an undersized Sun team will be a difference maker.

How to Watch

The New York Liberty will host the Connecticut Sun at The Barclays Center on Friday September, 1st at 8pm EST. You can watch the game on WNBA League Pass or ION TV.