Charles Schwab Challenge 2021 Picks & Moneyline Odds

Golf seems to never end and no sooner are we still enjoying the final round by Lefty to see him become the oldest Major Winner - the next tournament is back on the horizon. Our PGA guy J.N. Campbell sets the scene and has a few thoughts on some of the big names...

Weekly Preview: Charles Schwab Challenge @The Colonial, Ft. Worth, Texas

Course: Colonial Country Club

Location: Fort Worth, Texas

Date: May 27 - 30

Par: 70, Yardage 7,209

Purse: $7.5 Million / Winner $1.35 Million

Fairways/Rough: Bermuda

Greens: Bentgrass

Defending Champion: Daniel Berger

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The long shadow of 5-time champion, Ben Hogan continues to lord over The Colonial. Situated on the banks of the famed Trinity River near historic downtown Ft. Worth, it is celebrating its 75th anniversary this year. Hogan called “Cowtown” home, and I am often reminded how before he passed, he would head to his home course at Shady Oaks and hit just a few more sparkling drives. That was Hogan … powerful and accurate until the last. The Colonial was always an opportunity to exhibit the very best that Texas golf had to offer. The days continue, even without the man who was dubbed, “The Hawk.”

Before heading out to the course, I would strongly advise cruising by the Swiss Pastry Shop. Hans is a bakery scientist extraordinaire, and he has the goods to prove it. The field of this coming week is just as sweet, as PGA Pros look to tackle University West’s outdoor paradise. The Colonial continues to be an important stop in May, as players prepare for the summer schedule which is steadily switching from the “Southern Swing” up to the north. Weather can be a pivotal factor this time of year in North Texas, and it should never be underestimated.

Oddsmakers and prop punters like to talk about how The Colonial is an “old school” tournament, especially since it is landlocked. Their inability to extend the back tees, and make the course longer, they say, doesn’t interest heavy ballers like DeChambeau, DJ, and the like. I am non-plussed by this argument. I don’t think calibration is the issue. Golfers have families, schedules, and lives, thus the reasons behind why they enter (or not …), probably stem from a myriad of origins. Doesn’t every course reward those that are supremely accurate? I would think as such. Uncovering who has an advantage is still extremely difficult.

Last week, we nailed the fact that Rory McIlroy would not be the “best bet” to win the PGA. Our hopes that Abe Ancer would make the weekend were realized. Once again, we fell short with Jordan Spieth (Top Ten), and Tony Finau (Win). Both golfers exhibited flashes of brilliance, before the Sunday shifts in the wind, got the best of them. Now, we will look to offer some insights that should make The Colonial a fun place to cast your betting net. Here is what we have come up with this week!

A few promising prop bets …

Bullish on Honest Abe … (+1400)

Since The Masters, Abe Ancer has acquitted himself well when it comes to finishes. Even last weekend in the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island he fought and fought and fought … He landed at -1 when it was all said and done, which if you consider where he was at different points over the first 3 days, then it was a stellar 72. Any guesses about who had the best round on Sunday of all golfers in the field? It was Ancer … with a 7 under 65—a birdie machine. If it were not for some miscues in the previous 3 rounds, he could have easily vied for contention. His iron play, and creative shot-making ability continue to make him one to watch and wager on. I am pretty high on backing him, and one of these days he is going to come up with a win. Betting him across the board … to make the weekend, low score on any given day, and even to win the whole shebang, is an idea.

GRADE: A

JT’s dance moves and iron play … (+1000)

Justin Thomas, aka “JT,” a former FedEx Cup man of the hour looked pedestrian this past week in South Carolina. I am not sure if his head was just not screwed on straight, or his regular precision was just not up to scratch. Whatever the case, let’s remember that he can be a potent threat week to week. In other words, do not sleep on JT. I like his chances coming into where the “West Begins,” and I have no doubts that he can course correct. Thomas has a barrage of weapons at his disposal, and when he gets hot, he can be virtually unbeatable. His 2020 try in this Tourney was his first, and he ended up 10th. As he gets his game ready for the U.S. Open, now is the time to strike. Consider betting his money moves for the win; when it comes to fair odds … he is never really over +2000.

GRADE: A-

Order up … The Spieth Scrambler … (+800)

The recent COVID-19 travails of one Jordan Spieth seem to not have impacted the pickers when it comes to backing him in the PGA Championship. This golf ’capper was one of them! Spieth had his moments during the 4-day war by the shore. Shooting a 68 was the highlight on Saturday, but he was over par the rest of the way. Coming back to his hometown in the Metroplex, he can make amends with some of his signature “scrambling,” and ability to drain a put lethally from 15ft. or more. The Colonial suited him just fine as he dawned the tartan sport coat back in 2016 with a win. A couple of “seconds” bookended that victory. Now, Spieth has the chance to get back on track, and he is capable of great things. At the Valero Texas Open down in San Antonio, he flashed some of that old form that garnered him so much early success, enroute to 12 PGA Tour wins. Priming the pump for a run at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, the 121st go’round, is the objective. Whether you are a professional athlete or not, coming back from COVID-19 is never easy. Spieth has a shot to rebound at short odds, but it may not go as planned. Wager with caution …

GRADE: B

Lefty comes in riding high … (+1500)

Those that had Phil Mickelson winning the PGA Championship at Kiawah deserve a major pat on the back, and “atta wager!” “Lefty” was as good as ever, and he kept his composure even though he slipped a bit down the stretch on Saturday. Brooks Koepka was nipping at his heals, but with the fans “literally” behind him, Mickelson won the day. Records were meant to be broken, and Mick certainly proved that, as he shattered the “oldest golfer to win a Major” category. Clearly 50 years, walking this Earth, is no standard in an age when fitness and nutrition can make the difference. Mickelson’s famous coffee concoction must have been a catalyst as well. When asked if he was still on for The Colonial, a tournament he has won 2x, he affirmed that commitment. Getting ready to face the U.S. Open (the only Major he has not won) in his hometown of San Diego is a priority. The career “Slam” is on the line. I think the reigning PGA Champ will digress a bit in Ft. Worth. Betting him to win might not be the best idea. Maybe taking who he is “paired with” might be the better option. 

GRADE: B-

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Enjoy all the action from Ft. Worth, Texas! It’s time once again from The Colonial …