Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury Predictions, Picks, and Odds 8/29/23

The Atlanta Dream take on the Phoenix Mercury, the first of their final five game slate of the regular season.

Little has come easy for the Dream of late, 4-11 in their last 15 games after putting together a seven game win streak, pushing them to 12-8 on the year. Atlanta is still seeking a push into the playoffs and has .5 game advantage of the Sparks, and 2.0 game advantage over the Sky to sit in 7th, but after watching their precipitous fall the past month, snagging every game possible matters down the stretch.

The Mercury were officially eliminated from the playoffs this past weekend, dropping a close game to the Dallas Wings. Losing the reins on the longest postseason appearance streak in the league hurts, but Phoenix has made it clear that they’re still playing to win as the season winds down.

The Dream are 8.5 point favorites, per FanDuel, with -430 odds on the moneyline. The Mercury has +320 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 159.5.

Prediction

The two teams have split the season series thus far, Atlanta taking the first meeting and Phoenix the second in a landslide. Diana Taurasi became the first player in W history to score 10,000 career points, coming on a 42 point outburst, in their early August matchup. That game was even more notable considering that All-Star center Brittney Griner didn’t play for Phoenix.

Talent is not the problem with the Dream, unequivocally the more talented of the two teams; consistency is a large issue, arguably their biggest on the court. As a young team, it makes sense, but considering what their trajectory was earlier in the season and the play they put forth against the upper echelon of the league, it is frustrating from an analysis perspective.

That being said, with franchise star Rhyne Howard in the fold and All-Star Allisha Gray back from an ankle injury, it feels highly unlikely this team loses to the Mercury again. Phoenix has struggled to get much consistent traction on either side of the ball, and at the end of the day, I’d expect talent to win out.

Score Prediction: Dream 82 Mercury 70

Players to Watch

Second-year forward Naz Hillmon has seen an increase in playing time with starting four, Nia Coffey, out for the season. Hillmon brings a fantastic blend of feel for the game, strength, defensive tenacity, and versatility to the table for Atlanta.

When she’s aggressive and in rhythm, the team is better for it and her play is as well. With guaranteed leeway and run, she’s put together some of her best minutes of the season in spite of the overall team play, including a 12 point and 8 rebound showing in Indiana.

How to Watch

The Atlanta Dream will host the Phoenix Mercury at Gateway Center Arena on Tuesday August, 29th at 7pm EST. You can watch the game live on CBS Sports Network.