Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings Predictions, Picks, and Odds 9/15/23

With the WNBA Playoffs underway and a raucous start to the opening week of the postseason, the Atlanta Dream and Dallas Wings look to put together a tightly contested series in the 4 vs 5 seeded matchup.

The Wings blasted the Dream in the final game of the regular season, but with a week off in between games to rest, practice, and prepare, is a different result on the horizon in Texas?

The Wings are 6.5 point favorites, per FanDuel, with -300 odds on the moneyline. The Dream have +235 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 169.5.

Prediction

Headed into this series, Dallas has a multitude of advantages and mismatches across the board, as well as home court advantage.

They out rebound the Dream by nearly 8 boards a game, Atlanta’s worst rebounding margin in regular season matchups. The Dream scored their fewest points per game during the season series as well, mustering just 76 per contest, well below their 82.5 average. Atlanta also shot below 39% from the field in all three matchups, winning none.

Dallas has a very clear size mismatch at nearly every position, but particularly in the frontcourt where they also have better depth than the Dream. It’s also worth noting that Dream starting forward, Nia Coffey, is out for the postseason as she recovers from a hand injury.

Coffey’s minutes have been replaced by the duo of Monique Billings and Naz Hillmon, who have been productive, but their lack of shooting makes things harder on Atlanta’s offense in some regards.

Wings star guard, Arike Ogunbowale, has performed incredibly well against the Dream, averaging 26.7 points per game, hitting 34.4% of her nearly 11 threes per game, and getting to the line seven times per game. Keeping Ogunbowale in check while also keeping Dallas’ bigs out of easy buckets on the block will be pivotal.

Score Prediction: Wings 88 Dream 78

Players to Watch

Teira McCowan and Kalani Brown take center stage in this matchup, especially considering that the Dream are the smallest team in the playoffs. Both stand at 6’7 and provide challenges for the Dream on either end of the court. The duo has averaged a combined 18.8 points and 19 boards in the series with Atlanta, a significant factor.

Dream Head Coach recently spoke about the importance of pressuring post entry passes and working to deny or disrupt passes to the post; they did not do this well during the regular season, but can a week of preparation change that?

The gravity well the two bigs create on the interior becomes a difficult problem. Do you send extra pressure to help on the post only to deal with what the Wings can do out of that help? It’s something the Dream will have to solve if they are to win this series.

The most important player in this series, however, plays for the Dream. Rhyne Howard is the deciding factor on any given night, a literal walking bucket.

She can score from all three levels, vastly improving her ability to get into the paint and create as a primary ball handler this season. Howard has struggled from the field against the Wings, largely due to their size and how much pressure they put on her. In just her second season as a pro, the two time All-Star has a chance to prove herself in her first playoff series and matchup, shining brightest on the biggest stage. She has a habit of showing out when it matters most, so Atlanta is never out of a matchup.

How to Watch

The Dallas Wings will host the Atlanta Dream at College Park Arena on Friday September, 15th at 9:30pm EST. You can watch the game on ESPN2.