2024 WNBA Draft Riser: Nebraska’s Jaz Shelley

Selection Sunday is just four days away, on the verge of ushering in one of the most exciting times of the year as March Madness takes root. The buzzer beaters and upsets set the tone for the Tournament, but perhaps the most jarring part of the Big Dance is how immediately it ends and feeds into the WNBA Draft.

While getting drafted to the league is based upon your body of work as a prospect and player, a strong stretch on the biggest stage can push and project to an even higher degree. Following Cameron Brink’s Draft declaration and Te-Hina Paopao’s announcement to return to South Carolina for her final year, what are some of the biggest questions and storylines to be cognizant of in the next few weeks?

One of the largest right now: Can Jaz Shelley keep rising?

Over her last 10 games (since beating Iowa), Huskers guard Jaz Shelley is averaging 17.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game while shooting 44.5% from the field. She’s canning 38.8% of 8.5 three point attempts per game, taking a wide variety of shots off the dribble and movement.

Shelley has long been on the radar as a pro prospect, but her last month of play has turned heads as she helped Nebraska elevate from near bubble team to a Tournament lock, along with an appearance in the Big Ten Championship.

Especially with some return announcements, is there a chance for Shelley to ascend into a higher place as a prospect? It’s definitely on the table.

Shelley excels out of ball screens and with pick and roll play, with good craft in creating separation laterally and downhill by leveraging her shooting threat. What she can do out of handoffs, on relocation, and as a screener herself is so big in opening up more with the gravity she brings as a shotmaker. She gets set and square so quickly. 

She doesn’t have the traditional burst of most lead guards, more of a combo in that sense, but has a very smooth handle. She uses her strength, angles, and very good balance to create when she gets into the paint. It’s worth noting however, that Shelley is not a super strong finisher inside the arc. She has good craft and ability to generate shots, but she’s very below the rim, opting for scoops and touch shots. They look great when they go in and she hits them at a high level, but there’s a big difference between being solid on touch shots and being above average on layups; for reference, Shelley has shot 45.9% on layups this season and roughly 40% on touch shots per InStat scouting. That’s a hard diet to survive and thrive with at the next level.

While I do think that’s generally a harder mold to thrive with, her shooting prowess on and off the ball is a huge separator. Overall efficiency and immediate impact with that shotmaking will be key to hit higher outcomes and see the floor early. She has a solid floater game and mid-range touch, but again, most of her ability to manipulate the defense comes from the perimeter rather than the interior. Playing in a setting alongside other initiators is key for getting the most out of that kind of guard play.

I’d add as well, Shelley is an excellent playmaker, capable of making advanced reads that supersede your average pick and roll playmaking. I really like how she uses head fakes and look offs to sell something, force a tagger to move, and create open shots.

Shelley handles ball pressure and aggressive coverages pretty well, as most of her turnovers come out of when she sees a really high level on the ball defender who gets into her handle. That’s not the end all be all, but it’s an important tell with respect to looking at her game for the next level. Bri McDaniel and Celeste Taylor both guarded her quite well this season, showing some of the issues she can have when guarded by length and quick feet. However, she still does an excellent job of making sure she’s a constant threat even after she moves the ball, apparent and crucial in that win over Maryland.

When she does see more two on the ball, particularly Iowa’s high hedges, she does a good job of beating the coverage with patience.

A significant key for me is her defense. She’s not going to be all world at the next level, as size will always be a factor, but she’s deceptively strong for someone her height. Shelley gets over and around screens well, has good defensive footwork, and is in the right places with good hands and angles.

Can her offense reach a point of consistency and efficiency along with good positioning to offset some of the difficulties of being a smaller guard? I’m becoming much more open to that idea after recent play.

If Dallas doesn't take a guard at 5, could Shelley make sense for the Wings at 9? Dallas has multiple options at guard, but based on the playoffs, it makes sense to test the waters and take a shot at upgrading the point guard position and depth. I could well be wrong, but my assumption after the sign and trade by Connecticut for Moriah Jefferson is that they're unlikely to use the 10th pick on a guard unless it's in a draft and stash scenario.

I still have New York projected to take Ohio State guard Celeste Taylor, but could see a world where Shelley could be the pick there. However, it's worth remembering that the Liberty signed Ivana Dojkic, and she seems like a lock at backup point.

Neither Danielle Robinson (UFA) or AD Durr (RFA) have re-signed in Atlanta. While Atlanta has a great deal of wings and forwards, there could definitely be a world where Shelley carves out a role as a backup with the Dream.

Point being, there are options, and those options are only expanding for Jaz Shelley as she keeps performing at a high level.