Tour de France Odds: Porte a 26-1 shot to consider

Neil Monnery is rather excited about the 2021 Tour de France which could be one the best in years. He isn't sure the best bet however is the person who will win the race. His thoughts are below...

The 2021 edition of the Tour de France is one of the most mouthwatering in years. With a bigger split of parcours than normal - it will open up the race for more aggressive riding than in years past. The race won’t just be won or lost in the high mountains. GC contenders will be able to make up time on two Individual Time Trials along with several punchy stages that could see races being lit up earlier. If you are a fan of the sport then this event should be right up your alley.

Defending champion Tadej Pogacar is unsurprisingly your betting favorite with the Sportsbooks. The 22-year-old Slovenian has an incredible record in big stage races. He’s raced twice in Grand Tours, winning here last year with a third place at the 2019 Vuelta coming before that. He won the Tirreno-Arriatico this year along with finishing third in the Tour of the Basque Country. In terms of stage racing - he’s only failed to finish in the top ten once in his career and that was in his first ever race.

UAE Team Emirates have a strong team behind their undoubted leader. The likes of Marc Hirschi, Rafal Majka, Davide Formolo and Brandon McNulty should give him significant support. They aren’t the best team here but they are good enough to ensure he shouldn’t be isolated early on any big stage.

His biggest competition will surely once more come from fellow countryman Primoz Roglic. He looked set to win the 2020 Tour before a stunning reversal of fortunes in the final ITT. Wout van Aert will once again be the incredible wing-man. Steven Kruijswijk and Sepp Kuss should be good lieutenants in the high mountains but a lot will come down to how he can recover mentally from last year. He did follow up with victory in Spain at the Vuelta but returning to France where he had such heartbreak will not come easy.

The two of them are far and away the two shortest prices out there but we have to talk about Ineos Grenadiers before we even consider who will be in yellow come Paris.

The British team have won seven of the past nine editions of the Tour de France. Last year did not go well but then they went to Italy where Tao Geoghegan Hart surprisingly won the Giro d’Italia and Egan Bernal won that race this year meaning they have actually won two Grand Tour’s on the spin.

They come this year with not one, not two but three Grand Tour winners among their team and that doesn’t include Richie Porte who finished on the podium last year. Geraint Thomas is expected to lead the team and the Welshman has a yellow jersey in his cupboard having won the race in 2018. The two ITT should help him and the lack of high mountains will be welcome. He did however win on the top of Alpe d’Huez in 2018 so he’s no slouch.

Richard Carapaz and Tao Geoghegan Hart are expected to assist him but either could be part of an aggressive team ride and vault themselves into GC contention and who is going to rule Richie Porte out? The Australian won the traditional warm-up race in the Criterium du Dauphine and boy did he look good in doing it.

So Ineos Grenadiers probably do not have the best rider in the race but they have three of the top five in the betting markets, which is crazy when you think about it. Will team strength and depth beat the class of the two favorites?

I should also mention Julian Alaphilippe but I expect him to go for stages rather than GC. Rigoberto Uran has some support among the cycling community but he lacks the support needed to take on the might of Pogacar, Roglic and the team might of Ineos Grenadiers.

Picks: Pogacar or Roglic would surely win if it was a straight fight but that collective might of Ineos Grenadiers is scary. Value wise Richie Porte at 26-1 is a crazy long price having looked so good at the Criterium. He might be their third option but with such a potentially open race - can UAE Team Emirates and Jumbo-Visma marshal every one of Ineos’ four options?

I’m not sure they can.

Porte might not be my straight pick to win the race but at 26-1 - he’s the best value play on the board.