Jonas Vingegaard vs Tadej Pogacar: Who will win their third TDF?
The 2024 Tour de France is set to begin on Saturday, June 29. It will be a three-week cycling extravaganza that ends on July 21 in Paris, and one that promises to be exciting right from the start. The opening stage this weekend will create a bit of history, as this marks the first time that the Tour kicks off in Italy (Florence). It will also be one of the toughest opening stages in recent history, featuring 3,600 meters of climbing.
Of course, it’s never too early to start looking ahead toward the end of the race. When it’s all said and done, the 111th edition of the Tour de France is expected to come down to Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar. They have split the last four titles, with Pogacar triumphing in 2020 and 2021 before Vingegaard won each of the past two years.
Which cycling superstar will have the upper hand in 2024? Let’s break it down.
Vingegaard looks to make it three in a row
Vingegaard is a 27-year-old from Denmark. He soared into prominence in 2021, when he finished runner-up at the Tour de France to Pogacar. At 25 years old, Vingegaard did one better in 2022. He took control with his first-ever TDF stage victory (Stage 11) in the French Alps and never looked back, ultimately beating the second-place Pogacar by two minutes and 43 seconds. Last summer, Vingegaard led Pogacar pretty much from start to finish and ended up winning by seven minutes and 29 seconds.
After Vingegaard’s 2024 season began in style with a dominant victory at a race in Spain, it suddenly took a turn for the worse in the form of a Stage 4 crash on April 4 during a race in Spain and southern France. Vingegaard sustained a broken collarbone that required surgery and cracked ribs. The two-time defending Tour de France champion is reportedly ready to go in his effort to three-peat, but nonetheless he heads into this year’s festivities as a bit of a question mark due to his physical status.
Pogacar poised to reclaim the crown
Pogacar is a 25-year-old from Slovenia. His first Tour de France triumph came in 2020, when he broke defending champion Egan Bernal in the Alps and then dominated the final time trial to clinch victory. Pogacar finished 59 seconds ahead of runner-up Primoz Roglic. His success in 2021 was a foregone conclusion much earlier, as he blew away the competition in a Stage 5 time trial and seized the yellow jersey for good in Stage 8. In the end, PoGo defeated the second-place Vingegaard by five minutes and 20 seconds.
Pogacar’s 2024 campaign has been both busy and successful. He is going for cycling’s proverbial Triple Crown, which consists of the Giro d’Italia, the Tour de France and the world championships. The Slovenian also has the Paris Olympics on his schedule. Pogacar easily won the Giro d’Italia in May, giving him four victories already this season.
2024 Tour de France winner prediction: Pogacar powers past Vingegaard
Pogacar is a considerable favorite to win the 2024 Tour de France, going off at -190 odds; Vingegaard is a +220 second choice.
Despite the relatively steep price, it looks like there is good value on Pogacar. He has been by far the best cyclist in 2024, highlighted by his utterly dominant performance at the Giro d’Italia (runner-up Daniel Martinez was nine minutes and 56 seconds back). Vingegaard obviously can’t be discounted given his commanding TDF win a year ago, but his recent crash and ensuing injuries are a major concern. Visma-Lease a Bike teammate Tiesj Benoot recently said, “I am 100 percent sure that no-one from the team dares to bet money on the fact that Jonas will make it to the podium.” Sure, Benoot may just be trying to limit expectations. However, when a teammate cautions against betting money on Vingegaard, the rest of us should probably listen.
Beyond the top two cyclists, additional contenders worth noting are Roglic (+750), Matteo Jorgenson (+1800), Remco Evenepoel (+2000), Carlos Rodriguez (+2000) and Adam Yates (+2800). Other former champions in the field are Chris Froome, Geraint Thomas and Bernal. Of those three, only Bernal remains in the realistic title mix (+4500).
Roglic at +750 may be a longer shot worth a bet, but based on both past history at the Tour de France and current form in 2024, it looks like Pogacar is in line for a third victory lap on the Champs-Elysee.
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