Red Sox @ Orioles Predictions 5/7/21: Take the Over 9.5 Total Runs
The Red Sox travel to Baltimore on Friday evening and Neil Monnery thinks it'll be a high-scoring game...
The Boston Red Sox offense has been on an absolute tear lately and they face-off against Matt Harvey and the Birds in Camden Yards tonight and I have a feeling they'll stay really rather hot. A 16-hit day against Detroit on Thursday showed that they aren't overly reliant on the long-ball. Six players had multi-hit games and JD Martinez and Xander Boegarts have been superb so far in 2021.
What can't be overlooked when looking at this market in the stadium. AL East stadiums do tend to help offenses more than they do a pitching staff and in the three-game set between these two teams earlier in the season - Over 9.5 would've won on all three occasions. With ten runs being scored twice and another game being a 23-run slug-fest.
The pitching match-up sees two above-average pitchers go at it with Matt Harvey taking the mound for the home side. The veteran right-hander has only pitched one Quality Start so far this season in six attempts. That isn't a great stat as it exposes the bullpen somewhat. He's only given up more than three runs once however but that at home to the...yes you guessed it, Boston Red Sox on April 8. The visiting team are patient and are likely to get him out of the game early - even if he pitches well.
On the other side of the match-up - left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez is coming off his worst start of the young season having been taken out of the game after just five innings and giving up four runs in Texas against the Rangers. That moved his ERA up to 4.18 and he also struggled in Camden Yards earlier in the season - giving up three runs through just five innings of work.
This has the making of a BP game and I like the offense to be the dominant factor and therefore I'll take the over 9.5 total runs currently at odds against with most Sportsbooks and best priced at the time of writing with SugarHouse in New Jersey at +128.
