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Red Sox @ Orioles Picks 5/10/21: Lopez over 4.5k is a good bet

JD Martinez and the Boston Red Sox are looking for a sweep at Camden Yards
JD Martinez and the Boston Red Sox are looking for a sweep at Camden Yards
By Zachary Rainey

The Boston Red Sox have every chance of completing a four-game sweep but Zach Rainey has his eyes on a nice looking Player Prop for the Birds' starting pitcher...

The Boston Red Sox have been an interesting story this season.

After trading superstar Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers before last season, the Red Sox endured a rough abbreviated season last year. Coming into this season, there wasn’t much to be excited about either.

They had shipped off Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi, key pieces of the team’s World Series run back in 2018.

Xander Bogaerts hit .300 last season, but there was a significant regression from Rafael Devers last season. One of the silver linings of the season was seeing Alex Verdugo lead the team in hitting at .308.

J.D. Martinez also took a significant step back, finishing last season with a .213 average and just seven home runs, tied with catcher Christian Vazquez and Bradley Jr..

But all of a sudden, the Red Sox brought back Alex Cora to be their manager again. As a Sox fan, I personally didn’t think there was much to be excited about with this team, especially after clearing house.

As of right now, the Red Sox have the best record in the major leagues at 22-13, despite losing the first three games of the year to the Baltimore Orioles. Tonight, the Red Sox are -135 favorites to complete the four-game sweep.

Bogaerts currently leads the team with a .349 batting average. We’ve also seen the revitalization of Martinez, as he is now hitting .333 and has hit more home runs this year (10) in just 33 games than he did in 54 last season. 

MLB Odds

In terms of ERA, the Red Sox haven’t been lights out, but they don’t blow games. They can keep the team in games, hoping that the team will eventually get enough runs to pull it out. So far, that strategy has worked.

Nick Pivetta is currently 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA, the lowest on the team. Eduardo Rodriguez also sits 5-0 with a 3.82 ERA. Nathan Eovaldi is 4-2 with a high ERA of 4.62. Eventually, this team will get Chris Sale back, and that’s when I’ll truly believe this start for Boston is more than smoke in mirrors.

Since that three-game sweep against Boston to start the season, Baltimore has gone 12-19, while the Red Sox have gone the other direction like I mentioned earlier. Also interesting to point out, Baltimore is 4-13 at home, which they are tonight, while Boston is 12-4 on the road. All the more reason I like Boston tonight.

For our player prop for this game, I’ll take Baltimore’s starter Jorge Lopez at over 4.5 strikeouts. The Red Sox are sixth in the league in terms of least strikeouts per game, but they still average over eight per game. If Lopez can get through six innings, I think Lopez can get over the number.

You can get the +4.5 at +114 at 888Sport, BetRivers and Unibet. 

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Up to $500 in bet credits
Bet $1 & get $200 in Free bets. New customers only, a deposit (min $10) is required to participate in the offer. T&Cs apply.
Up to $1000 in 4 risk free bets
New Customers only, T&Cs apply ,21+, NJ only.
Up To $1500 Risk Free First Bet
New Customers Only, 21+, T&Cs apply, NJ only
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21+, NJ residents only, T&C's apply.
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21+, New customers only, T&Cs apply, NJ only.
Get $100 in free bets when you bet $20
Min $25 stake, New Plyrs, 21+, T&Cs apply.