Pirates @ Reds Predictions (5/10/21): Over 8.5 runs the Pick

Monday isn't a full slate of MLB action but we have a look at the Pirates and Reds and are bucking the trend in thinking this will be a run-scoring affair...

Jeff Hoffman (2-2 4.39 ERA) and Mitch Keller (2-3 6.29 ERA) are not exactly Roger Clemens up against Greg Maddux when it comes to pitching match-ups. The former has an inflated ERA due to failing to get out of the third inning against the White Sox last week but before that, he'd still only put tonight one Quality Start - going six and giving up one against Cleveland back in the middle of April.

The 28 year-old has put together a more than decent 2021 campaign so far but his recent history cannot be overlooked. He was down in Triple-A as recently as 2019 and put up a 7.70 ERA for the Albuquerque Isotopes. To think that he's now finally becoming a dominant pitcher would be a fallacy. His inability to go into a game deep is also of serious concern.

On Monday he faces off with Mitch Keller - who put together his finest outing of the young season last time out going five-and-two-thirds against the San Diego Padres without giving up a run, giving up just two hits and two walks to go along with five strikeouts. Pretty darn decent that.

In his previous five starts however you'll see he didn't get to the third once and two more times he was out of the game before the fourth inning rolled around. The 25 year-old looks like a promising young pitcher but the poor outings aren't disappearing so runs could well be plentiful.

Cincinnati aren't exactly a prolific offense, which probably goes to indicate why the total run line is much lower than you might anticipate with the pitching matchup. Only once in the past week have the Reds scored more than three runs. Pittsburgh too aren't exactly making the scoreboard operator work overtime as they too have only scored more than three runs once in the past week. Yet that over/under line of plus odds for over 8.5 is calling. One of Hoffman or Keller could easily be hit out of the game early.

Pick: Over 8.5 runs at +115 with Unibet and SugarHouse at the time of writing is the Pick.