Mets @ Orioles Predictions (5/11/21): Over 7.5 runs a tempting price

John Means returns to the mound following his no-no and near Perfecto in Seattle but can he perform as well against the Mets? Neil Monnery looks at the matchup and some stats in an attempt to find some betting value...

28 year-old lefty John Means had had quite the start to his 2021 campaign. Last time out he was a wild pitch away from a Perfect Game over in Seattle. That performance made him the first Orioles pitcher since 1994 to win AL Player of the Week honors. It is a great feel good story for the 11th round pick who was once rated as the 29th best prospect in the organization and who contemplated retirement at one point.

That 12 strikeout performance was sublime and upped his record to 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA. He has failed to make it through six innings only twice so far this season and has four straight Quality Starts under his belt.

He'll be facing off with Marcus Stroman (3-3 2.12 ERA) who has been a bit unlucky to have three losses to his name. Only once has he deserved the L - going four innings against the Nationals whilst giving up four earned. His other two losses are giving up two unearned through five against the Phillies and a tough two earned through five in St. Louis.

All the data from a pitching point of view seems to be pointing towards a really low scoring game but I am sensing potential betting opportunities to go against conventional wisdom. I have slight concerns that even with the extra day of rest - John Means will struggle. Coming off the back of such an emotional performance is extremely draining both mentally and physically.

In addition both offenses have actually been pretty good recently. The Mets have scored four or more in five straight with the Orioles having plated three or more four times in their last five. With the over/under line set at 6.5 - I am feeling a push up to over 7.5 and getting a pretty good price. At the time of writing +155 is what you can get with both SugarHouse and Unibet.

Prop wise you can get John Means to strikeout over 6.5 batters at positive odds - +105 with BetMGM. He's struck out nine or more three times in his past four and the one time he failed - he got to six. So he may struggle a bit but I still feel like his K numbers will stay up.