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Nationals @ Cubs Predictions: Cubs on the Moneyline at -105

Kris Bryant is the star man for the Cubs at the moment
Kris Bryant is the star man for the Cubs at the moment
By Neil Monnery

A pitching match-up for the ages is not what we have on deck in Chicago today but what we do have is a surprisingly close Moneyline. Neil Monnery has an overview of the Nats @ Cubs today...

The Chicago Cubs took the opening game of this four-game series 7-3 on Monday night as they got to former pitcher Jon Lester early and never relinquished the lead. The left-hander left after 5.1 innings having allowed five Cubbies to cross the plate. Only the pitchers spot was hit-less on the night as Chicago chased at least one run home in six of the eight innings they batted. The Cubs certainly have been solid on offense in recent days with Kris Bryant leading the way - hitting over .300 with an OPS above 1.000.

On the mound tonight for the home team is 28 year-old right-hander Zach Davies (2-2 - 5.60 ERA) - who has really turned it around in the month of May. In April he had more earned runs (20) than innings pitched (19) to put together a 9.47 ERA and that just isn't getting it done. In his past three however he's only given up two runs through 16.1 IP for a 1.10 ERA. That is quite some turnaround.

The best of these performances was a seven-inning five-hit shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday 7th May. Whilst it is certainly tough to trust that this change is permanent - seeing him extract more ground ball outs in his recent starts is a good sign that he's got something going on.

On the opposite side of the match-up this evening is lefty Patrick Corbin (2-3 6.19 ERA). It was only two years ago that he was getting Cy Young votes following a 14-7 3.25ERA campaign, which came off the back of a 11-7 3.15ERA year. He struggled in the Covid hit 2020 season putting up a 4.66 ERA and only getting credit for two wins. This year he's been even worse having allowed 25 earned runs through 36.1 innings of work.

Bar that 17-run explosion against the Diamondbacks a few days ago - the Nats haven't been hitting great over the past ten days or so. Trea Turner is a wonderful lead-off man but when you have a guy hitting third batting .172 - it is not what you call ideal.

This is not a good pitching match-up looking at the overall numbers but it is pretty clear that Davies has found some real improvement in recent weeks. The fact the Moneyline has this so even when one of the pitchers seems to be in a much better groove than the other is a little bit mystifying.

Pick: Cubs at -105 on the Moneyline (PointsBet & BetMGM)

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