Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: World Series Game 1 Predictions, Picks and Odds

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Arizona Diamondbacks are heading into a game and a series as the underdog.

A Cinderella run has taken the Diamondbacks to the brink of a championship as they prep for Game 1 of the World Series on Friday against the Texans Rangers.

But Texas is the favorite to win the series at -175 odds, compared to +145 for the Diamondbacks. The first game is huge, and the Diamondbacks will be the underdogs for the 13th time in 13 postseason contests in this matchup.

Here is a look at the betting lines, according to BetMGM on October 27th.

Moneyline: Rangers -160; Diamondbacks +135
Total Runs: Over/Under 8.5

If a bettor put down $100 on every D-Backs moneyline this postseason, he or she would be up a cool $885 thus far. That value remains, and with a potential Zac Gallen bounceback performance on the horizon, Arizona is the clear choice to win this game at these favorable odds.

The Rangers were the better team in the regular season and have played well in the playoffs, advancing from the wild card round like the Diamondbacks, but Arizona is the pick in a game that feels like it could be more of a coin flip than the oddsmakers are projecting.

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers World Series Game 1 Betting Prediction

The spotlight in Game 1 will be on Zac Gallen, who had a pair of bad outings against the Phillies in the NLCS, giving up nine runs in 11 innings pitched.

Gallen was the Cy Young favorite in the National League for much of the season but has been underwhelming in the playoffs. However, he fared well against the Rangers in two starts this year, striking out 17 batters and walking just one in 11 innings pitched, and could be in line for a bounceback.

The Phillies will counter with veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who had a 12-5 record and 3.63 ERA during the season and is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in the playoffs. Eovaldi is a solid pitcher who has looked really good lately, but he’s not overly dominant. The D-Backs certainly have a chance to touch him up.

Like in the last series for the Diamondbacks, top of the order success may determine this one. Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno were huge reasons why the team has made the World Series, and the same can be said for Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia for Texas.

Look for Gallen to return to his regular season form in this matchup, leading the D-Backs to a crucial Game 1 road win over Texas, and paying off once again for moneyline bettors.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 5, Rangers 3

Prop Bet Pick: RHP Zac Gallen Over/Under 15.5 Outs

This is the World Series, and Torey Lovullo will not hesitate to pull his starting pitcher if things are going south, or if he is worried about Gallen facing the Rangers a third time through the order.

However, Gallen is this team’s ace and has earned the benefit of the doubt to fight through rough patches. This prop bet asks if Gallen will get to 5.1 innings pitched against the Rangers, with the under the strong favorite.

But I think there is some value here. As said previously, I do like Gallen’s chances to revert back to his impressive regular season form. And even despite a choppy postseason, Gallen has gotten 16 outs in three of his four starts in the playoffs.

If the Rangers get after Gallen early, this bet will be a tough one to cash, and even if he’s pitching well, the sixth inning will be one where Lovullo really starts to consider going to the bullpen.

But I like that the designated hitter takes away any pinch-hitting concerns, and the feeling here is that Gallen reaches 16 outs in Game 1 of the World Series.

Prediction: Zac Gallen Over 15.5 Outs (+110 at BetMGM)

How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Rangers World Series Game 1

The Texas Rangers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1 of the World Series on Friday, October 27th, 2023 at 8:03 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The game can be seen on FOX.