NFL Betting: An Underdog Pick to Win Each Division

The NFL juggernauts are ready to run it back, and it’s no surprise to see the Chiefs and 49ers of the world as betting favorites to capture their divisions in 2024.

But the offseason is a time for dreaming, so let’s sit back in our beach-side hammocks and consider which Cinderella stories could come true in January.

Here are my favorite underdog picks to win each NFL division in 2024. Odds courtesy of BetMGM sportsbook, as of May 15th.

AFC East: New York Jets (+240)

The Favorite: Buffalo Bills (+155)

Analysis: The Patriots might be the worst team in the NFL, so they’re out. 

Miami has +175 odds, but I’m worried this team peaked in 2023. Tua Tagovailoa had a good regular season a year ago, which I don’t think he can sustain, and the Dolphins lost some key players in free agency.

So the pick has to be the Jets. 

Yes, that’s a deep sigh you heard from behind my computer, but really, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

The defense should be elite again, and while Aaron Rodgers is a humongous wild card, the talent is still there despite his advancing age. The Bills have taken a step back this offseason and this division is open for the taking.

The Jets feel like a boom-or-bust option, so here’s to the boom.

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (+165)

The Favorite: Baltimore Ravens (+125)

I’d be shocked if this wasn’t a two-team race come December, as the Steelers and Browns have quarterback issues too glaring to ignore. I can’t quit the Bengals, who remain one of the most talented teams in the AFC.

Joe Burrow needs to stay healthy, but for all intents and purposes, this group is running it back in 2024. Cincy has a powerful aerial attack, and that will give it a chance to win a lot of games, and possibly the division.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts (+325)

The Favorite: Houston Texans (+110)

I actually quite like the plus odds on the Texans, but that’s not the name of the game in this exercise, is it?

The Colts intrigue me. Houston went from cellar-dweller to playoff contender because C.J. Stroud exploded onto the scene as a rookie. The Colts have a good enough roster to do the same if Anthony Richardson can blossom.

It’s hard for young quarterbacks to excel in the NFL, but it’s not impossible. And I liked the top of the Colts’ draft, as they added Laiatu Latu and Adonai Mitchell at positions of need.

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers (+350)

The Favorite: Kansas City Chiefs (-225)

The Chargers are the default pick as the Broncos and Raiders prepare to sink into the NFL abyss, but I don’t hate it.

Los Angeles lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason but still have a decent roster. Really, this comes down to two things: can Justin Herbert reach elite quarterback status, and can new coach Jim Harbaugh turn things around quickly?

Well, one more thing: if Patrick Mahomes gets hurt, this bet has a real chance.

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys (+125)

The Favorite: Philadelphia Eagles (+125)

It’s a blurry line here as the Cowboys and Eagles have identical lines to win the division, so I’m just gonna take the one I like.

The Eagles made a bigger splash this offseason and have the more well-rounded roster, but we are sleeping on Dak Prescott. He played at an MVP level for much of 2023 and is a tier above Jalen Hurts when it comes to pure talent.

The Cowboys still have a very good team and I like them to win the division.

NFC North: Green Bay Packers (+210)

The Favorite: Detroit Lions (+130)

I really like the Packers heading into 2024. Jordan Love finished top-10 in Total QBR in his first full season at the helm and should take another step forward this season.

Green Bay is well-coached and has a great team-building process. The Lions are very talented but Jared Goff feels like a regression candidate this year while Love is on the upswing.

The Bears have to be considered, too, but the Packers are the pick to win the NFC North at enticing odds.

NFC South: New Orleans Saints (+375)

The Favorite: Atlanta Falcons (-120)

The oddsmakers are confident about the Falcons, positioning them as odds-on favorites in the division heading into the season. But there are injury and age questions about Kirk Cousins, and any missteps on offense could keep Atlanta from fulfilling expectations.

Meanwhile, the Saints finished with a plus-75 point-differential last season, which was third-best in the NFC. 

Is Derek Carr great? No. But are the Saints well-rounded enough to win 10 games and steal the division from an underwhelming Atlanta team? Yes, they are.

NFC West: Los Angeles Rams (+375)

The Favorite: San Francisco 49ers (-210)

The 49ers are a huge favorite because their roster is just so damn impressive. 

Even if Brock Purdy goes down, this is a team that could remain afloat with Uncle Rico at quarterback.

But if one team in the NFC West is poised to pull off the upset, it’s the Rams. Los Angeles won seven of its final eight regular season games in 2023, with the only loss coming in overtime to the Ravens.

Los Angeles was No. 7 in offensive DVOA last season and was borderline-dominant on that side of the ball down the stretch. With Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams returning, the Rams could even be a sneaky Super Bowl contender.

The Cardinals are intriguing at +1100 odds because they have a very talented quarterback in Kyler Murray and an up-and-coming offense, but the defense will be trash.

The Rams might be in a lot of shootouts this year after the retirement of Aaron Donald, but I’ll put my trust in Sean McVay, a star quarterback and an explosive skill group.