Italy vs. Spain Euro 2020 Picks: Italy to stride into the final

The first semi-final of Euro 2020 is upon us and Italy are the favorites to take down Spain. Does our Neil Monnery agree with the Sportsbook odds...?

Location: London, England

Date: Tuesday, July 6

Kick Off Time: 3PM ET

TV: ESPN

After gallivanting around Europe, the final three games of the delayed Euro 2020 tournament will all take place at Wembley Stadium in London. All four teams that have made the semi-finals all had the luxury of playing all three of their group games at home. This format has been clearly patently unfair but it is the tournament we have.

Italy made it here thanks to a 2-1 win over Belgium in one of the matches of the tournament so far. The first 45 minutes especially was high on drama but even higher on quality. Both teams looked absolutely fantastic and the winner of that game was always going to vault to the head of the betting market to win it all. That subsequently changed following England’s 4-0 win over Ukraine the following night but the Italians showed they are very much for real.

Alas another very real thing is the injury to Leonardo Spinazzola. The wingback had been one of the breakout stars of the tournament despite being 28 years of age. He was unsurprisingly attracting suitors from the EPL but new club manager Jose Mourinho will be gutted to lose him for the first half of the upcoming season. For this game Chelsea left-back Emerson is expected to replace him but he’s far more defensive and won’t open up or stretch defenses.

Another thing I want to mention that I haven’t done so far in my Italy previews is just how good Gianluigi Donnarumma is in goal. He is right up there with Manuel Neuer in being the best in the world right now and has every argument for claiming to be the best. What a time for him to be a free agent!

As for Spain, I’ve been down on them for most of the tournament yet they’ve found a way to get to this stage. They needed Extra Time to put away a fairly average Croatia side and needed penalties before downing ten-men Switzerland. Spain are not a very good team and I’m surprised they aren’t a longer price than they are to win this game in 90 minutes (+220 on the Moneyline).

Pablo Sarabia is their only fitness doubt but seeing miraculous recoveries by other players throughout this tournament, I wouldn’t rule him out of contention just yet.

Italy are the better side. They have the better defense, more creative midfield talent and are at least on par with Spain’s attacking threat. Roberto Mancini’s men haven’t lost for 30 games and I don’t see them doing so here.

Picks: Happy to play +160 on the Moneyline for Italy to win this game with SugarHouse. In addition, over 2.5 goals is a value play at +140 with William Hill in NJ.