Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Picks: Value in the cards markets

So here we are. After a month of very good football, we are down to two teams. Neil Monnery takes a look at the final of Euro 2020 between England and Italy...

Location: London, England

Date: Sunday, July 11, 2021 

Kick Off Time: 3PM ET

TV: ESPN

I’m going to start bizarrely with the appointment of Bjorn Kuipers as the referee in charge of this game. The choice of who gets that job is rarely that important but the Dutch official is known as a no nonsense referee who isn’t swayed by simulation. With Italy having been seen to be reverting to the dark arts that they were so adept at many moons ago. This could have an influence on the game and certainly on the ‘Who will be shown a card?’ markets that I’ll delve into later.

We’ll talk about Italy first as they were the first team in. They have been involved in the two games of the highest quality throughout this tournament. They beat Belgium in the Quarter-Finals in a genuinely scintillating game of football. Next up they played Spain tough for 120 minutes before besting them on penalties.

In Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci they have two of the very best defenders of their generation. They might not be blessed with speed but they read the game as good as if not better than any other CB combo at this tournament. Harry Kane will find it tough to best a lot out of either and that means England are likely to rely on the speed of Raheem Sterling and Bakayo Saka down the flanks to try and turn Italy.

In midfield Marco Verratti has put his spotty club form to one side to dominate the midfield alongside Jorginho and Nicolo Barrella. The trio will be up against Mason Mount, Declen Rice and Kelvin Phillips and on paper you would fancy the Italians to win that power struggle in the center of the park. This could be key.

Up top Ciro Immobile is a big presence and could bully John Stones should he be able to isolate the Manchester City defender.

Over on the English side of the field they have only conceded once throughout Euro 2020. Italy have only seen an opposition player running off to celebrate a valid goal twice so it is fair to say both sides look pretty solid. This is why the Both Teams to Score market as No as the odds on favorite. I’ll be betting against that when it comes to it.

Defensively they are likely to play four at the back with Kyle Walker’s speed at right-back being a key part of their last line of defense.

I’ve already touched upon the midfield battle where I think Italy do have a distinct advantage but the pace and skill England have at their disposal on the flanks can have just as much of an impact. Saka has been a big surprise but seeing Raheem Sterling with a smile on his face and back to his usual high standards has been a key part of why Gareth Southgate’s side have got this far. With three goals to his name already, who would bet against a fourth on Sunday?

Up top Harry Kane will lead the line as he has done throughout Euro 2020. The Spurs’ front man struggled in the group stage but four goals in three games during the knockout phase indicates he’s in a rich vein of scoring form.

Picks:

Well. I’ll start with a couple of huge prices. Harry Kane (+1800) and Ciro Immobile (+2700) to be shown a card is stupidly long. This referee won’t like playing going down softly and with attackers being penalised for jumping with elbows up a lot throughout Euro 2020 - these prices are worth a few bucks. Those prices are with Unibet and SugarHouse in NJ.

I like Both Teams to Score despite both teams having excellent defensive records. Both semi-finals were 1-1 through 90 minutes so ‘Yes’ on the BTTS market with Resorts Casino in NJ at +120 is another play.

Raheem Sterling at +335 with Unibet and SugarHouse to score any time is another pick I’m happy to throw a few bucks down on but now we come to the key call - the Moneyline…

My Moneyline pick is the tie through 90 minutes at +200 with bet365, SugarHouse, Unibet and William Hill in NJ. I see this game going deep into the London night and I would not be stunned if a penalty shootout decided the outcome of Euro 2020...