BetMGM Erred With Low Opening Touchdown Pass Total for Kyler Murray

BetMGM was one of the first sportsbooks to release quarterback passing touchdown totals for the 2024 regular season.

There was a number out of the gate that looked extremely low, and that was confirmed by the recent unveiling of touchdown totals from other sportsbooks.

Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray opened with an over/under of only 16.5 touchdown passes at BetMGM, with -110 odds on each side of the wager. Bettors likely hammered the over, as the number quickly moved to 17.5 within hours.

While there are 26 quarterbacks with passing touchdown totals listed at BetMGM as of June 3, Murray is no longer one of them.

Here is a look at his over/under touchdown pass totals for three other prominent sportsbooks.

Kyler Murray 2024 Passing Touchdowns

DraftKings

• Over 21.5 (+100)
• Under 21.5 (-125)

FanDuel 

• Over 20.5 (-110)
• Under 20.5 (-116)

Caesars

• Over 18.5 (-140)
•  Under 18.5 (+110)

Murray only played eight games last season but had 10 touchdown passes. In his first three seasons before a torn ACL cut into both 2022 and 2023, Murray averaged 23.3 touchdown passes per year.

Injuries have to be factored in, and a serious one could ultimately still make under 16.5 touchdown passes the right bet. Additionally, the Cardinals are expected to be run-heavy this year with second-year offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, which is the opposite of the pass-heavy tendencies from former play-caller Kliff Kingsbury.

Even so, one touchdown pass per game is a low threshold if Murray stays healthy all year, and 17 touchdown passes is still doable if he misses a few contests.

The Cardinals have star tight end Trey McBride in the fold and added elite wide receiver prospect Marvin Harrison, Jr. with the No. 4 overall pick in the draft.

Judging by the other sportsbook lines, the true over/under seems to be settling in at around 20.5 for the 2024 season, making over 16.5 touchdowns a fantastic bet for those who got in early at BetMGM.