England vs Malta Prediction and Betting Tips: Two stats-based bets for Friday night Wembley clash

England seek to cement their place as Group C winners in EURO 2024 qualifying when Malta make the trip to Wembley on Friday night. Scott Thornton is our man for the occasion and he has assembled two stats-based bets for readers to consider.

England still need to wrap up the top spot in Group C and they can do just that when they take on Malta on home turf. Gareth Southgate’s side hammered the minnows 4-0 earlier in the group and it should be another resounding victory this time around.

There are a number of key players missing for England, with the likes of Jude Bellingham and Luke Shaw unavailable. The in-form James Maddison has also been ruled out for a lengthy period. However, Southgate is blessed with fantastic depth and he will be able to name a formidable starting 11 here.

Malta’s squad doesn’t feature any household names but there are no injury worries for them here. Teddy Teuma plies his trade for Reims in Ligue 1, while striker Jodi Jones has made 14 appearances for Notts County in League Two. 

This will be about damage limitation for the visitors. They lost 2-0 when they last visited England back in 2016 but the Three Lions are a far stronger outfit coming into this match.

England will dominate proceedings from start to finish. They have the midfielders to dictate the pace of most games so we can expect one-way traffic when they take on the group’s whipping boys. Malta showed great spirit in the 4-0 defeat earlier in the group but the gulf in class was far too great to bridge.

Gareth Southgate’s side are averaging 58.67% possession across their three home matches in the group so far. They will be able to knock the ball around with consummate ease here and it’s difficult to see Malata laying a finger on the Three Lions. 

England are the overwhelming favourites and the handicap is set very high, so a good way to get complete domination on side is by backing under 31.5 throws in the match. England’s matches are averaging the 2nd fewest throws per game in qualifying with 29.17 on average. Only Spain’s matches have seen less with 28.83. Both of these sides are possession hungry, so this plays into our hands against a Malta team who average just 27.29% possession.

This angle has won in all three of England’s home qualifiers so far, where their most recent competitive home match against Italy saw 24 throws. Their other two saw 22 and 28. Malta’s matches have seen 37.43 on average but that looks set to drop significantly when they visit Wembley.

We complete our first bet builder by backing under 2.5 goal kicks for England. They are conceding an average of five shots per game in qualifying. Fewer opposition shots ultimately means fewer goal kicks. England’s average of 3.17 goal kicks taken per match is the joint-fewest across qualifying.

Southgate’s men had 0 goal kicks when they travelled to Malta. Their home encounter with the side who are 2nd bottom of the group, North Macedonia, also saw them have 0 goal kicks.

For the longshot bet, we are backing the same angles as the main bet with decreased lines. We are also adding under 2 corners for Malta. The minnows had just one when they travelled to Italy in their last away match. They had 0 when they played England on home soil.

This bet landed in England’s meeting with the 2nd weakest side in the group, North Macedonia. The Macedonians had 0 corners, forced no goal kicks and there were 22 throws in the match.